News from the Dream Team Baseball League

  • 2013 Season Preview: Part III

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton

    Every MLB team has a game in the books now.  I don’t think we have learned anything we didn’t already know.  Good pitching tends to beat good hitting.  Pitchers usually have the edge early in the season, especially on the first couple days when the aces are on the hill.  Also, Clayton Kershaw and Bryce Harper are pretty good.  And as I’m writing this, some guy name Marwin Gonzalez just ended Yu Darvish’s perfect game bid with two outs in the bottom of the 9th.  Still, a decent Demigods debut for Mr. Darvish.

    Now we’re getting to the heart of these 2013 season projections.  The top four contains the defending champions and three other teams that came within an eyelash of winning it all last year.  All four of these teams are likely to be in the hunt again this season.  Tonight, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish fourth and third place.  They happen to be the league’s last two champions.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
    • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (2nd)
    • Wins – 10th (3rd)
    • Saves – 5th (2nd-T)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Points – 4th (1st)

    Summary:

    I hate to beat a dead horse, but here is yet another example of a team that should easily beat their projections in at least a couple categories, particularly the nearly impossible category to predict:  wins.  I would be shocked if David Price winds up as the only Naturals pitcher with more than 13 wins, which is the case in these ZiPS projections.  Matt Cain, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke and Price are going to team up for the third fewest wins in the league?  I don’t think so.  Their staff led them to the championship last year and are a decent bet to do the same this year.  What will be more interesting to follow is the progress of their offense.  With the obvious exception of Miguel Cabrera, several of the Naturals other top hitters underachieved a year ago.  Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton should cruise past their ’12 numbers.  Andrew McCutchen, a healthy Victor Martinez… this is a very impressive roster.  The Naturals hitting was the best in the league in 2011.  If they can combine their ’11 offense with their ’12 pitching, they will really be on to something.  And they certainly have the talent to do it.  Three teams better than this one?  We’ll see about that.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
    • Wins – 8th (7th)
    • Saves – 8th (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (7th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (1st)
    • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Jackalope were unable to defend their title last year mostly because their offense was a huge disappointment.  These projections are encouraging for them in that it appears they should expect to bounce back near the top of the league in most hitting categories.  Only by Albert Pujols’ lofty standards would his ’12 season be considered a disappointment, but that it was.  Expect him to return to being one of the top fantasy players in the league.  Maybe not THE top player though.  That honor might belong to Jackalope teammate Ryan Braun.  Giancarlo Stanton is vying to join that discussion too, although it will be interesting to see how much he gets to hit with Placido Polanco hitting behind him for the Marlins.  The Jackalope have been carried by a nearly unbeatable rotation the last few years.  But they may not be quite as strong this year.  There are serious concerns about Roy Halladay’s rapidly decreasing velocity.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee remain two of the most dependable pitchers in the game though.  One note on the Jackalope pitching projections.  They assumed Aroldis Chapman would be a starter this year.  It is debatable whether his return to the bullpen will be a net positive or negative for the Jackalope, but it certainly puts these rankings into question.  Regardless, the Jackalope have the hitting and pitching to compete for another title this year.

    That leaves two.  You know who they are now.  But you’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see who are the projected 2013 DTBL champions.

    Categories: ,

  • 2013 Season Preview: Part II

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Cougars pitcher Gio Gonzalez

    Last year concluded with a frantic five team race for the title on the final day of the season.  But just two months prior to that, there were as many as seven teams right in the hunt for the championship.  I’m not saying that will happen again this year, but there is precedent for all of the following teams to be championship contenders, even if they don’t significantly exceed their projections.  These are the teams that are projected to finish seventh up to fifth place.  Actually, the computed standings had two teams tied for sixth place, so I will just review them alphabetically.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th-T)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (7th)
    • Wins – 5th (6th)
    • Saves – 2nd (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 6th-T (6th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers are another team that could be expected to exceed their pitching projections.  For the second straight year, they might choose to use a sixth starting pitcher in a RP slot (Alexi Ogando).  Ogando isn’t likely to repeat Chris Sale’s ’12 season, but he could give the Choppers a nice win and strike out boost.  But they also have four closers on the roster, so they won’t be punting saves by any means.  Sale is their only elite starting pitcher, but they have a lot of intriguing guys who are capable of racking up strike outs, in particular.  On offense, it appears home runs will be their strength again this year.  Newcomer Anthony Rizzo will attempt to pick up the slack early on while Curtis Granderson is on the shelf.  Jose Bautista needs to stay healthy this year.  B.J. Upton appears to be primed for a huge season, in which case he could give the Choppers a boost in power and speed categories.  It has been a while since the Choppers were a serious title contender, but they will have a chance this year if their starting pitching pans out.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (1st)
    • Home Runs – 6th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (6th)
    • Wins –  7th (2nd)
    • Saves – 7th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (3rd)
    • Total Points – 6th-T (4th)

    Summary:

    And here we have our first appearance from one of the “Big 5” who chased the title on the final day of the season.  This might be the most surprising projection of all.  Let’s not forget that the Moonshiners came within 1 1/2 points of winning the title last year and were the league’s most balanced team.  They were the only team to accumulate over 30 batting and pitching points.  So why the gloomy forecast for this season?  Well, they only had one draft pick in the first three rounds this year, so they didn’t have an opportunity to significantly pad their projections with one or two acquisitions.  But that doesn’t mean this team won’t contend.  The biggest key is for R.A. Dickey to not take an enormous step backwards like he is projected to do.  Dickey, Jered Weaver and Yovani Gallardo lead the rotation that will be a bit thin until Brandon Beachy returns from Tommy John surgery.  The bullpen only has two definite closers, but first round pick Fernando Rodney is good enough to make sure they aren’t buried in saves.  They have solid players across the board on offense, so I just don’t see them finishing in the bottom half of the league in batting points.  Prince Fielder, David Wright and Desmond Jennings are three players who I expect to easily exceed their projected numbers.  I strongly believe the Moonshiners will contend for their first DTBL title again this year.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 4th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (8th-T)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
    • Wins –  1st (1st)
    • Saves – 6th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (5th)
    • Total Points – 5th (8th)

    Summary:

    Now here is a real sleeper candidate.  The Cougars have not finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  But this definitely looks like a team that is capable of making a big leap forward.  The most interesting thing in these projections is the Cougars shift from a speed to a power team.  In light of some spring training injuries, I think fourth in home runs is a little unrealistic, but they certainly do have more power on the roster.  They will need to overcome early injuries to Mark Teixeira and Brett Lawrie though.  Assuming he isn’t out too long, expect a big bounce-back season from Lawrie to help justify his status as the #1 pick in last year’s draft.  The pitching staff is very good.  I don’t think it is possible for Kris Medlen to repeat his performance as a starter last year, but he won’t need to.  Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright join Medlen as four legitimate aces.  5th place may seem like an awfully optimistic prediction for this team, but I think it is quite possible they will finally make their return to the top half of the standings.

    I didn’t get around to doing any previews yesterday, so I’m a day behind schedule.  My new goal is two more teams tomorrow (Tuesday) and then the top two championship contenders (according to the projections) on Wednesday.  I hope you are enjoying the first full day of baseball!

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  • 2013 Season Preview: Part I

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman

    Last year, Marc provided some very interesting team previews based on stats from multiple projection systems.  I have decided to do something similar this year, however, due to time constraints, I only used a single set of projections:  ZiPS.  I’m not an expert on these different projection models, so I have no idea if ZiPS was the best choice, but that’s what I went with.  ZiPS does not do saves projections (or if they do, it isn’t available on FanGraphs), so I used Steamer Projections for that category only.  I could write a very lengthy article on why these stat projections aren’t the greatest for predicting fantasy results, so take all of these projections with several grains of salt.  However, I also don’t like to make enemies by publishing my own predictions, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

    Here is a brief explanation of my methodology.  I used the projections for all 28 players on each team’s roster to compute team totals in all 10 of the categories we use.  However, I didn’t want to leave it at that since there are a bunch of differences in the composition of the extra five players on each roster.  For example, it would figure that teams with a bench full of hitters would outpace teams with mostly extra pitchers in the offensive counting categories (HR, RBI, R, SB).  So what I decided to do was to multiply the team totals in those four categories by the ratio of 14 over the total number of offensive players on the roster.  Theoretically, this would mean I’m only counting full season stats for 14 players, the regular DTBL batting roster size.  I did this rather than simply subtracting players who figure to spend part/most of the season on the bench because I didn’t want to make any personal predictions on roster moves.  The biggest flaw in doing it this way is that every player contributes to the team projections, even if they aren’t expected to see much playing time.  But I think this is better than adding full season projections for every single player.

    My methodology was slightly different for pitchers.  Doing it the same way as I did for hitters would have been slightly problematic because it would cause significant differences between teams with extra starting pitchers vs. teams with only extra relievers.  So instead, I calculated what the average number of innings pitched was for each DTBL team in 2012 (1,239) and assumed each team would come close to that number again this year.  So the ratio used to multiply the counting categories (W, SV, K) was 1,239 divided by the team’s projected innings total.  The biggest flaw here is with teams that plan on using an extra starting pitcher in a RP slot.  It is safe to assume those teams will accumulate more innings, but these projections assume the team IP totals are all the same.  So that is another caveat to consider when diagnosing your team’s projections.

    Despite the flaws, I do believe these projections can be useful in identifying relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.  Perhaps I will share the full projections when I finish with the team previews.  In these previews, I will provide the team’s projected ranking in each category as well as the overall predicted order of finish.  Then I will give some of my own thoughts about the team, and perhaps explain some instances where I feel the projections are wrong.  I will go in the reverse order of the predicted standings, doing a few teams each day for the next few days.  So, without further ado, here is the team projected to finish in last place…

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
    • Wins – 6th (9th)
    • Saves – 1st (2nd-T)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (4th)
    • Total Points – 10th (9th)

    Summary:

    Obviously, nobody wants to be last in a projection.  However, despite the 10th place prediction, there are encouraging signs for the Gators.  First, they just completed their best draft in many years, acquiring some very good, young talent with players like Yoenis Cespedes, Will Middlebrooks and Andrelton Simmons.  Next, they are projected to finish with 41 points, which would be an improvement over last season.  They have had the worst offense in the league three years running, but there is a decent chance that streak will stop this year.  Almost all of the offensive players they drafted this year will be upgrades over their counterparts from 2012.  The pitching projections are a little surprising because the Gators had a very underrated staff a year ago.  They still have the deepest stable of closers in the league.  Their rotation is a big question mark, but there is potential to meet or exceed last year’s numbers.  I think this will be a much improved Gators squad, even if the place of finish doesn’t necessarily reflect that.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
    • Wins – 2nd (8th)
    • Saves – 10th (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
    • Total Points – 9th (7th)

    Summary:

    Last year, the Demigods championship hopes were sabotaged by a weak pitching staff.  If these projections are to be believed, that could be the case again this year.  However, this is one team where my methodology for computing the pitching stats was harmful because it appears they will use a sixth starting pitcher (Brett Myers), meaning their wins and strike out totals should be higher than projected.  Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto form a pretty solid top three, but the rest of the staff will need to exceed expectations.  They only have one closer, Brandon League, who could lose his job any minute.  So saves appears to be a write off category.  Offensively, the Demigods have a solid squad, but they need to stay a lot healthier than they did last year.  Look for huge seasons out of Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey.  Freddie Freeman is a major breakout candidate too.  9th place would be a pretty big disappointment considering how much talent is on this roster.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
    • Wins – 9th (10th)
    • Saves – 3rd (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
    • Total Points – 8th (10th)

    Summary:

    It has been two long years since the Darkhorses 4-peat.  Last year in particular, was one long nightmare in which everything that could have possibly gone wrong did.  They nearly set the low water mark for total points and finished dead last in all five pitching categories.  There is no way to go but up from there.  And this team is a safe bet to do just that.  But the injuries are already starting to mount up, starting with the news that Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which came out not long after our roster cuts were made.  Relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Jonny Venters are also headed to the DL to start the year.  And on offense, Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez will miss significant time to begin the season.  Their healthy pitchers are mostly high strike out guys who hope to improve their ERA and WHIP numbers.  A strong comeback year for Tim Lincecum would go a long way towards fixing this team.  I’m not sure what to think about the Darkhorses offense, but we saw last year how quickly one young superstar can turn around an entire squad (Mike Trout, Mavericks).  The Darkhorses hope to get a similar boost from Bryce Harper.  He just may be up to the task.  Hopefully, these early injuries won’t bury the Darkhorses before they ever get started, but I think they will certainly improve upon last year’s disaster.

    That’s it for tonight.  Tomorrow, I’ll run down at least three more teams and finish things up on Monday and Tuesday.

    Enjoy tomorrow night’s MLB opener and have a happy Easter!

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  • No Clowning Around

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Darkhorses outfielder Bryce Harper

    Who should the Darkhorses have picked with the first selection in the 2013 DTBL Draft?  That’s a clown question, bro.  With one of the clearest cut decisions in recent memory, the Darkhorses selected 20 year old outfielder Bryce Harper.  The Nationals young phenom burst onto the scene last summer at the ripe age of 19 and proceeded to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.  He bounced back from a mid-summer slump to tear the league apart on his way to a .270 average with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  The home run total was the second most by a teenager in MLB history.

    A year after most of the league made the mistake of allowing Mike Trout to slip to the second round, the Darkhorses ensured that the same wouldn’t happen this time around.  Of course, Harper has much higher expectations heading into this season than Trout did a year ago since he has a roster spot locked up and is even expected to hit third in the lineup for one of the top World Series contenders.  Although both are legitimate five tool players, Harper does have a slightly different skill set than Trout.  Harper is projected to be the bigger power threat while Trout has unmatched speed on the bases and in the outfield.  The sky is the limit for Harper, and his bust potential seems extremely low.

    Harper is only the second player to become a first overall selection in both the MLB and DTBL drafts.  Alex Rodriguez is the other, which makes it interesting that Harper is entering the league at the exact same time as ARod’s 16 year career with the Kings is coming to an end.  I’m sure the Darkhorses would be happy to get at least a decade and a half of service out of Harper.  I’m 99% positive that Harper was the youngest player to ever be drafted by a DTBL team in the first round (maybe any round), an honor he held for less than 24 hours (more on that later).  The Darkhorses are looking to bounce back from two straight disappointing, injury-riddled seasons.  Harper has the potential to quickly accelerate the rebuilding process, much like Trout did for the Mavericks a year ago.

    Last year, the Gators had the tall order of trying to rebuild without the benefit of a first or second round pick.  This year, they held onto those picks and wisely used them to pick up a few of the best young players in the draft.  With the second overall pick, they selected Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who made an immediate impact in his first big league season, hitting several prodigious home runs early in the season.  He somewhat quietly proceeded to have an outstanding season that surely would have earned him a Rookie of the Year nod if it weren’t for some guy named Trout.  Cespedes slugged 23 home runs with 82 RBI and 16 steals.  Like Harper, he has big time power potential with the ability to add a bunch of stolen bases too.

    If Kris Medlen can come anywhere close to matching his 2012 numbers, the Cougars might suddenly have one of the league’s top pitching staffs.  Medlen, a Tommy John surgery survivor, started last season in the bullpen, but then became nearly unhittable after moving into the rotation.  He won 10 games with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP.  The Cougars selected him with the third pick in the draft.  The Demigods then followed with another starting pitcher, Yu Darvish.  Along with Cespedes, Darvish was the other key foreign import to the big leagues last season.  He displayed overpowering stuff, striking out 221 hitters in just 190 innings.  He should help the Demigods recover from a season that was largely derailed by a shaky pitching staff.  The Choppers took the Cubs young first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, with the fifth pick.  Rizzo had been a highly touted prospect for a number of years, before finally breaking through with a solid season for his third MLB organization.  Rizzo figures to be a centerpiece in the Cubs lineup for some time to come.

    For the most part, the top five picks were fairly clear cut.  I know those five players were the top five on my draft board, and I suspect I’m not alone.  But I felt there was a significant drop-off in available talent after those five.  Which was kind of fitting because the next five teams all came within an eyelash of winning the championship last year anyway.

    For the second straight year, the Jackalope were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie.  With the sixth pick, they took second baseman Danny Espinosa, who spent the last two seasons with the Kings.  Espinosa spent almost the entire ’12 season on the Kings bench, but only because he was at a log jammed position.  He actually had a very solid year and provides significant power and speed for a middle infielder.  He seems to be getting better each year too.  Next, the Moonshiners selected closer Fernando Rodney, the obvious #1 relief pitcher on the board.  Rodney re-emerged as an elite closer for the Rays, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA.  Seventh is the earliest a relief pitcher has been selected since 2010.  But the Moonshiners were in desperate need of a second closer and only had two picks in the first rounds with which to acquire one.

    For the fourth straight years, the Mavericks had multiple first round picks.  This time, they didn’t acquire the second one until just before they were on the clock with the eighth pick.  They dealt one member of their stable of first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for the ninth overall pick.  So with two consecutive picks, the Mavericks did what has become their trademark:  they selected two young prospects, second baseman Jurickson Profar and third baseman Manny Machado.  Both have big upside, but Machado figures to make a more immediate impact since Profar is temporarily without a position in Texas, behind Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.  Of course, this is a similar situation that Mike Trout was in a year ago.  Profar just turned 20 a few weeks ago, which is notable for a couple reasons.  First, I believe it makes him the youngest player in DTBL history (he’s a few months younger than Harper).  Next, he is the first DTBL player to have been born after the inaugural DTBL Draft in January of 1993.  So he’s actually younger than this league!  (Damn, we’re getting old)

    For the second straight year, the Kings used the first round to try to fill their gaping hole at first base.  But this time, they did so by trading their pick for Ike Davis.  Davis got off to a horrific start in 2012, due in part to his slow recovery from valley fever, which he contracted during spring training.  But he rebounded in the second half of the season and turned into one of the leading home run hitters after the break.  He finished the season with 32 bombs.  Finally, the Naturals used the last pick of the first round to re-acquire catcher Victor Martinez.  Martinez missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL suffered over the previous winter.  The Naturals were clearly reluctant to let him go after holding him on the roster for the entire season.  However, when the opportunity came to pick him up again, they jumped all over it.  Although his catching days may be over, he will likely produce stellar numbers at a position that is extremely difficult to fill.

    For the most part, there were few surprises in the first round.  And I honestly can’t criticize any of the picks.  The top five teams went with the best players available, while the second half of the round featured last year’s contenders fill holes and/or proceed with their successful draft strategies.

    The pace of the draft has been great so far too.  We’re already into the fifth round at the four day mark, so I’d say we are well ahead of schedule.  Keep up the good work!

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  • My American Dream Team

    Written by:

    Kevin

    The 2013 World Baseball Classic began in Southeast Asia this past weekend.  The North American pools begin play tomorrow.  I’m a sucker for pretty much any international athletic competition, and baseball is my favorite sport, so it would seem only natural that I would be excited about the WBC.  But that’s not quite the case.  I will certainly watch it, but I will do so knowing that this is not the ideal way of crowning a true World Champion.

    The flaws of the WBC are many, but #1 on the list for me is that a majority of the sport’s best players will not be participating, particularly those who could be representing the United States.  I don’t blame any of the individual players for not participating and I’m not sure there is anything MLB or the tournament organizers could do to change this, but it certainly hurts the tournament.

    Team USA suffered a blow yesterday when they lost their presumed starting first baseman, Mark Teixeira, to a wrist injury.  He was replaced on the roster by Eric Hosmer.  Due to the last minute nature of Teixeira’s injury, I realize the options were probably quite limited in finding a replacement.  But if I were to compile a list of the top 10 American first basemen, I’m not sure Hosmer would make that list.  Meanwhile, a player who probably would rank ahead of him, Anthony Rizzo, is competing for Team Italy.  Don’t get me started on the ridiculousness of that…  But the point is, Team USA is clearly not as strong as they could be.  I decided to take a crack at compiling my ideal roster for the USA.  This team would be prohibitive favorites to win the competition, rather than just one of several countries with a decent shot at it.

    Players who are actually on the USA’s WBC roster are italicized.

    My starting lineup:

    1.  Mike Trout, RF

    2.  Andrew McCutchen, CF

    3.  Ryan Braun, LF

    4.  Prince Fielder, 1B

    5.  Giancarlo Stanton, DH

    6.  David Wright, 3B

    7.  Troy Tulowitzki, SS

    8.  Buster Posey, C

    9.  Dustin Pedroia, 2B

    Reserves:

    Catchers – Joe Mauer

    Infielders – Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist (just so I have someone who can back up any position)

    Outfielders – Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton

    Starting Pitchers:

    Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, David Price

    Bullpen (I’ll use a couple regular SPs out of the pen):

    Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Motte, J.J. Putz, Matt Cain, Chris Sale, Glen Perkins, Tyler Clippard, David Hernandez, Jonny Venters

    No other country could come close to putting together a roster with that sort of depth.  Not that it would guarantee victory in a tournament with so few games, but I’d take my chances with this squad.  Only eight of my choices are on the actual team, and none of them are starting pitchers.  No offense to Ross Detwiler, Ryan Vogelsong and Derek Holland, but they are quite a drop off from the rotation I compiled.

    Categories:

  • Happy 20th Anniversary!

    Written by:

    Kevin

    20 years ago today, January 18, 1993, five kids met in a basement to try out this thing called fantasy baseball.  Of course, I, and some of you, were those kids.  The league didn’t even have a name yet, but with the kick-off of the inaugural league draft that day, the Dream Team Baseball League was officially launched.  Two decades later, here we are still taking part in what has to be one of the longest running fantasy baseball leagues to have been started by a bunch of junior high kids.

    Sometime soon, I need to put all of the early history of the DTBL in writing before it completely escapes my memory.  But for today, I’ll just write about some of what I recall from that inaugural draft.  It will be a quick trip down memory lane for some of you, and for the rest, you may learn a little bit about how this whole thing got started.  That first draft was extremely significant not just because it was the beginning of the league, but because one team used it to build the league’s first dynasty.

    It was Martin Luther King Day 1993.  Current DTBL members Kelly, Charlie, Greg and myself, along with former member Peter, gathered in my family’s basement.  It was the last day of a three day weekend.  Four of us were in seventh grade and one in sixth at the time.  My youngest sister, who is currently a sophomore in college, was born three weeks after the draft.  Obviously, we all had a keen interest in baseball, but I don’t think any of us knew exactly what we were getting ourselves into.  We had certainly never played fantasy baseball before, and I think only I had even heard of it.  But I explained to the others what I had learned from reading about the game, established some rules, and organized the draft.

    In preparation for the draft, I attempted to set up the basement to mimic the NFL draft rooms I had seen on TV.  Each person had a table/desk with a team placard to mark their spot.  There was a makeshift podium from which the teams announced their selections.  When picks were made, the selected player’s baseball card was taped onto the wall next to a team pennant:  a draft board, of sorts.  I had printed out “newsletters” for each owner, containing the list of eligible players and stats.  As I type this, I’m staring at my old copy of that original newsletter.  Reading through it, some of it is quite embarrassing, until I remind myself I was 13 years old when I wrote these things.

    Although I don’t remember how long the draft ran, it could not have been short.  It lasted 28 rounds, allowing each team to fill their entire roster.  Our naivety towards fantasy baseball was evident right from the start.  The first round was filled with picks of personal favorites (Choppers:  Greg Maddux, Kings:  Frank Thomas) and past-their-prime stars (Gators:  Kirby Puckett, Cougars:  Joe Carter).  We drew numbers to determine the draft order, but wisely used a serpentine draft order for the only time in league history.  Greg selected Puckett with the first pick, effectively making him the league’s first official player.  Maddux went second, Ken Griffey Jr. third (to the Panthers), Thomas fourth and Carter fifth.

    Joe Carter may have been a questionable choice by the Cougars in the first round (although he was the World Series hero that year), but the totality of their 1993 draft was the best dynasty building event this league has ever seen.  They heisted Barry Bonds in the fourth (!!!) round.  Yes, this was pre-steroids Bonds, but he was already well established as one of the best players in baseball, and especially in fantasy baseball, coming off a 34 HR, 39 SB ’92 season.  Their next pick after Bonds was quite a steal as well:  Albert Belle.  Then came Barry Larkin in round six.  But they weren’t done drafting potential future Hall of Famers.  In round 18 it was Craig Biggio, Ivan Rodriguez in 19 and Kenny Lofton in the 22nd round.  Though Kelly was the youngest one in the group, she certainly outsmarted the rest of us that day.  The end result of that super draft class?  Three titles in the league’s first four years.  This season will also be the 20th anniversary of the Cougars’ 1993 title.

    As we progress through 2013, I may have some more 20th anniversary features, but I figured it would be nice to take a quick stroll down memory lane on this milestone date.  Looking ahead to our 2013 season, roster cuts will be due soon.  I will send details in an email.

    Happy Anniversary!

    Categories:

  • Cabrera Crowned MVP

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Naturals first baseman Miguel Cabrera

    Since the World Series ended a few weeks ago, the biggest debate in baseball has been Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout, who should be the American League MVP?  It’s been dubbed “Old School” vs. “New School” in terms of player evaluation.  “Old School” being traditional statistics like batting average, home runs and RBI and “New School” methodology using stats like WAR, OPS+ and UZR.  This isn’t the first time this debate has popped up.  Statheads claimed victory in 2010 when Felix Hernandez won the AL Cy Young award despite only recording 13 wins that season, a total which many believe would have disqualified him in years past.

    So this year we have Cabrera, who led the league in those traditional batting stat categories, thus earning him the first Triple Crown in 45 years.  And then we have Trout, whose base running and defensive prowess helped him put together what the advanced metrics would tell us was the greatest non-Barry Bonds steroid-aided season in at least 20 years.  The debate for DTBL MVP was similar, except in fantasy baseball, we don’t care about defense.  Nonetheless, the same two players figured to be the top contenders for the award.  In the end, and quite surprisingly to yours truly, Miguel Cabrera wound up winning both awards in fairly comfortable fashion.  He is the 2012 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    The Naturals path to the DTBL Championship has been well documented by now.  But Cabrera’s contribution to that title cannot be overstated.  The Naturals offense took some huge blows, dating back to last winter when Victor Martinez tore his ACL, causing him to miss the entire 2012 season.  It continued throughout the year when they lost several other key players to injuries, most notably Troy Tulowitzki.  However, the offense was just good enough to keep them in the race, almost entirely thanks to Cabrera.  He hit .330 with 44 home runs, 139 RBI and 109 runs scored.  He led the DTBL in HR and RBI, but did not win the Triple Crown in this league, finishing fourth in batting average.  Only Trout scored more runs than him, so Cabrera finished in the top four of every offensive category except stolen bases.  Needless to say, he led the Naturals in all four of those categories as well, with only Andrew McCutchen even coming close to him in most of them.

    Cabrera was a first round selection of the Naturals back in 2004 and won the DTBL Rookie of the Year award that season.  He has now won three DTBL titles.  Carl Crawford is the only other player who has contributed to all three of the Naturals championships, though Crawford’s contributions were quite limited this year.  Cabrera has bounced around at three different positions for the Naturals (OF, 3B, 1B), but his hitting has remained consistently solid.  Albert Pujols is probably the only other player who has consistently produced at such a high level for almost a full decade now.  This is his first DTBL MVP award though.  Cabrera has an incredible .321 career average.  He passed the 300 home run milestone late in this season (now has 309 in his DTBL career).  He also surpassed the 1,000 RBI mark this year too.  He is the Naturals’ franchise record holder in every offensive category except stolen bases.  Having played almost entirely at third base this year, next year he will shift back to 3B in the DTBL as well, creating some exciting possibilities for the Naturals.

    So that brings us to Trout.  The DTBL Rookie of the Year easily could have won this award too.  He led the league in runs and stolen bases, and even edged out Cabrera in batting average in this league since the Mavericks missed out on his first few MLB games of the year.  Trout bested Cabrera in three of five fantasy categories.  Also, the Triple Crown wasn’t in play here either.  So how exactly did Cabrera win this award?  Well, one crucial tie-breaker could have been the fact that the Naturals finished one point ahead of the Mavericks, making them the league champions.  In extremely tight races, team success can certainly enter into the equation.  Personally, I think the Tigers making the playoffs and the Angels missing out was a poor reason to vote Cabrera over Trout in the AL race considering the Angels actually won more games than the Tigers.  But it is a totally justifiable reason to give the nod to Cabrera in this league.  Also, some may have decided that Rookie of the Year was enough of an honor for Trout this year.  Surely, there will be other MVP opportunities for him down the road.

    What surprised me was the way the DTBL (and AL) vote turned out.  Not only did Cabrera win, but it wasn’t really that close.  In fact, Trout was closer to finishing third than he was to winning the award.  Cabrera received seven first place votes, two seconds and one fourth for a total of 87 points.  Trout was only at the top of two ballots and received 66 points.  Jackalope outfielder Ryan Braun received a first place vote as well and finished just seven points behind Trout.  Braun was barely even in the NL MVP discussion, but that is almost certainly due to what many believed to be his tainted 2011 NL MVP award.  He had another terrific season but was bested by a pair of players who had historic years.  Cougars outfielder Josh Hamilton finished in fourth place and another Natural, Andrew McCutchen, finished fifth.  So second through fifth places were all occupied by outfielders.  NL MVP, and Demigods catcher, Buster Posey came in sixth.

    Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

    Before I wrap this up, I want to go back to the Cabrera/Trout debate and add some of my personal thoughts.  First of all, I have been amused/amazed by the fallout from yesterday’s announcement.  Some statheads are in complete bewilderment, thinking this result is a slap in their faces.  On the other hand, some “traditionalists” are using this opportunity to mock these people they view as “new-age nerds”.  I think both sets of people are acting ridiculously.  A vote for Cabrera OR Trout is completely justifiable.  They both had tremendous seasons.  Personally, I voted for Trout in this league and would have done the same if I had an AL MVP vote, but I completely understand Cabrera winning this award, and actually expected it.

    One thing people need to keep in mind is that there is no 100% foolproof way of judging a player’s value with statistics.  WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is probably the best metric at our disposal today to do that, but even WAR is flawed.  First of all, there isn’t even an agreed upon formula for calculating WAR.  The two most cited WAR producers (FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) use different formulas, and thus have different results.  Also, one major piece of the formula is defense.  While defensive stats are getting better every day, they still need to be taken with a grain of salt.  For example, am I supposed to believe Alfonso Soriano was the 12th most valuable defensive player in baseball this year?  That’s what FanGraph’s UZR rankings tell me.  Anybody who watched Trout and Cabrera play can tell you that Trout was a far, far superior defensive player.  However, judging exactly what the difference between the two players was, in terms of value to their teams, is nearly impossible.  Personally, I believe the defensive ratings for those two players are fairly accurate, but this is only my opinion and is very much open to debate.

    On to the rest of the post-season!  I still have one more season recap to write (covering the non-contenders), so look for that soon.  Then we’ll start focusing on 2013.  By the way, I am definitely implementing the suggested rule change to push back the roster cut deadline.  I haven’t set the official deadline yet, but it will probably be in early February.  You still will not be able to trade players until cuts have been made, so we are in a bit of a roster freeze period until the winter ends.  At the moment, this is the only rule change I have decided upon for next year, but that may change.  Further dialogue is encouraged.

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  • Price is Right

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Naturals pitcher David Price

    A year ago, the Naturals had a mediocre pitching staff and wound up finishing 10 1/2 points behind the champions.  This year, that staff suddenly turned into one of the league’s best and the Naturals won their third DTBL Championship.  They had a roster full of pitchers who had great seasons, but one player clearly led the way:  David Price.  In a result that turned out to be almost identical to the AL Cy Young race, Price just barely edged out Justin Verlander to win the 2012 DTBL Cy Young award.

    In his young career, Price has established himself as one of the most dominating pitchers in the game.  Few can match his raw stuff, especially from the left side.  He has been able to produce stellar numbers despite pitching in the grueling AL East.  2012 was his best season yet though.  He finished just a hair behind Clayton Kerhaw with the league’s second best ERA at 2.56.  He was second in wins as well, reaching the 20 win mark for the first time in his career.  His 1.10 WHIP was the fourth lowest in the league and he struck out 205.  The wins, ERA and WHIP numbers were career bests.

    A second round pick of the Naturals in 2009, Price has had four quality seasons with the club in a stretch where they have never finished lower than third place.  He has now been a member of two DTBL Championship teams:  2010 and 2012, which also happened to be his personal best seasons to date.  Currently 27 years old, I’m sure he has quite a few more good years in him.  Along with Zack Greinke and Matt Cain, the Naturals don’t expect to have any trouble remaining near the top of the points table in the near future, particularly on the pitching side.

    As mentioned up top, this was an incredibly close vote.  Verlander just barely missed winning his second straight Cy Young award.  The Kings ace led the league in strike outs and had nearly identical ERA and WHIP numbers to Price (slight edge to Price in ERA and Verlander in WHIP).  What probably made the difference though was the three extra wins for Price.  Verlander finished with 17 victories.  Price received five of the ten first place votes, compared to three for Verlander.  However, Verlander almost made up for that difference with his five second place votes to just one for Price.  Neither were placed lower than third on any ballot though.  In the end, Price eked out the prize with 77 points, two ahead of Verlander.

    Those weren’t the only two players who received serious consideration for this award.  Another lefty, Clayton Kershaw of the Mavericks also received a pair of first place votes.  Kershaw led the league in ERA and WHIP and was second in strike outs.  But his downfall was just 14 wins.  While baseball people are willing to overlook low win totals in these days of advanced statistics, they can’t really be ignored in fantasy baseball since that category counts just as much as any other.  Kershaw was completely left off three ballots, but racked up 35 points to finish third in the vote.  Meanwhile, the Cougars Gio Gonzalez rode his league leading 21 wins to 30 points and a fourth place finish.  Rounding out the top five is Craig Kimbrel who earned 23 points as the highest finishing relief pitcher.  The Choppers closer had one of the most dominating seasons you will ever see from a relief pitcher, but had little chance of winning this award with so many strong starters in the field.  Not included in this top five are several other pitchers who had incredible seasons:  Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto and R.A. Dickey, to name a few.  In the case of Dickey, the NL Cy Young winner probably would have had a good shot at this award in the DTBL too had he been on a roster at the beginning of the season.  Cain will console himself with his MLB and DTBL championship rings.

    Click here to view the full details of the incredibly close vote.  Had any of the ten voters moved Verlander up a spot, or pushed Price down a level, we would have had a different winner.

    Check back on Friday evening when the Trout/Cabrera MVP debate will be settled once and for all…. or will Ryan Braun crash the party?

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  • Trout: Best Rookie Ever?

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout

    File this one under “Least Surprising News of the Year”:  Mike Trout has been unanimously selected as the 2012 DTBL Rookie of the Year.  The only question is where does his season rank among the top rookie campaigns of all time?  Heck, forget rookie seasons.  He put together one of the best seasons of any player in league history.  He has some stiff competition for the league MVP award, but he is certainly in that conversation as well.

    Although Trout has been considered one of baseball’s top prospects for the last couple years, the Mavericks selection of him with the 12th pick in this year’s draft caught some by surprise.  He struggled a bit in his brief MLB stop in 2011 and was not expected to play a significant role for the Angels this year due to a very crowded outfield situation.  But sometimes you just have to make room for a “once in a generation” type talent.  If the rest of his career plays out anything like his rookie season, Trout will be the biggest steal in the DTBL Draft since the inaugural one in 1993.

    Just how good was Trout?  Well, he led the league in runs scored (128) and stolen bases (48) by wide margins, despite not making it onto the Mavericks big league roster until May.  Only one player in the past five years has scored more runs than that in a single season (Curtis Granderson, 2011).  Oh by the way, he also hit .330 (3rd in the league) with 30 home runs.  He is already combining power and speed unlike anything this league has seen before.  His 48 stolen bases are the most in DTBL history for a player who also hit 30+ home runs.  He was just two stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30/50 player in this league.  Not bad for a guy who just turned 21 in August.

    The Mavericks rebuilding plan got kicked up a notch or five thanks to the acquisition of Trout.  He led the team in batting average, runs and stolen bases and was largely responsible for their jump from the third worst offense in 2011 to the second best this year.  In fact, he was the main reason the team as a whole improved from eighth place to nearly pulling off a shocking upset, coming in just one point away from a league title.  Trout is just one of a stable full of young, exciting Mavericks.  They figure to be one of the favorites to win it all next year.

    Speaking of young Mavericks, the second place finisher in the Rookie of the Year vote is another Maverick:  Stephen Strasburg.  Sometimes when a player wins a vote unanimously, it is due to a lack of deserving competition.  But that was not the case with this year’s group of rookies.  Strasburg easily could have won the award in a different year.  The second overall pick in the draft won 15 games with 197 strike outs and a 3.16 ERA in just under 160 innings pitched.  Of course, it was that limited innings count that created quit a controversy this fall and may have cost both the Nationals and Mavericks a championship.  Strasburg received half of the second place votes and finished with 58 points.  Right behind him was a rookie only in the DTBL sense of the word, 37 year old R.A. Dickey.  Dickey is a strong NL Cy Young candidate and would have had a shot at that award in this league too, except he remained a free agent until the Moonshiners signed him in late May.  So only 13 of his 20 wins counted in this league.  But he still had extremely impressive numbers across the board.  He received four second place votes and finished just a hair behind Strasburg with 52 points.  The final second place vote went to Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who finished fourth in the vote with a tally of 31 points.  Finally, Choppers first baseman Mark Trumbo finished in fifth place with 14 points.

    With one award to his name already, we will see later this week if Mike Trout is able to win the league’s Most Valuable Player award as well.  The Trout/Cabrera debate has been brewing for quite some time now, so I’m sure many are anxiously waiting to see how that shakes out.  In the mean time click here to view the full 2012 DTBL Rookie of the Year voting results.  Check back tomorrow evening for the Cy Young announcement.  Also, I haven’t forgotten about the 3rd and final season recap article, but it will have to wait until all of the awards have been handed out.

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  • Close Only Counts In…

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Mavericks outfielder Jason Heyward

    When a season ends like this year’s DTBL campaign did, there is always going to be a lot of second guessing.  One move here or there.  One umpiring or official scorer decision gone bad.  One unlucky bounce of the ball could have been the difference between a league championship and also-ran status for four different teams.  The Naturals won the DTBL Championship, but four other teams came oh so close.  Here’s a look back at 2012 for the Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners and Jackalope.

    While a second place finish is always a little disappointing, it was a step in the right direction for the Kings.  This was their highest finish since 2007 and only the second time they were a legitimate title contender since their reign of championships ended in 2003.  Like the champion Naturals, the Kings went through a bit of a transformation this season, albeit in the opposite direction.  Previously a pitching dominated team, this year they led the league in batting points and failed to win the league primarily due to a disappointing pitching staff.  Their starting pitching was a mess most of the season with Justin Verlander being the only consistent performer.  A second half surge, led by Max Scherzer, nearly won the league for them though.  The offense was solid all season, but faded a bit due to a poor second half by Carlos Beltran and a late season injury to Carlos Gonzalez.  Robinson Cano was the steady hand throughout.  The Kings are going to have some very difficult roster decisions to make because they may have more keeper-worthy players than any other team.  In this year’s draft, we saw a bunch of ex-Demigods picked in the early rounds.  That could be the Kings next year.

    For my money, the most interesting team in the league in 2012 was the Mavericks.  Their youth movement finally paid off in a big way.  Although they expected to be at least one more year away from being a serious contender, one move in particular shifted that time table way up.  What might some day go down as the biggest coup in league history, the Mavericks were able to steal Mike Trout in the second round of this year’s draft.  As I’ve mentioned before, I thought it was a huge reach at that point of the draft, but boy was I wrong.  Trout finished third in the league in hitting at .330, easily led the league in runs scored (128) and stolen bases (48) and hit 30 home runs.  He did all of this despite not making his DTBL debut until May.  He almost won the league for the Mavericks, though he did have some help.  Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Jones and Jason Heyward were some of the huge breakout stars for this club.  The pitching staff took a hit when Stephen Strasburg was shut down in September and they had no free agent signings remaining to replace him.  But Clayton Kershaw had another great season.  The Strasburg/Kerhsaw/Trout combination makes this one scary team for the foreseeable future.  Following two disappointing seasons, 2012 was just the beginning of the Mavericks resurgence.

    The Moonshiners may have been the team that suffered the most disappointment in the final week of the season.  Early in the week, they appeared to be well positioned to win their first DTBL title.  But they wound up settling for fourth place, albeit just a point and a half out of first.  That is actually down a spot from their third place finish in 2011, though 2012 was clearly a better season for them.  They were the league’s most balanced team; the only team to finish with 30+ batting and pitching points.  They were third in the league in both sub-sets.  While they lacked huge seasons from anyone, especially on the offensive side of things, they had incredible depth.  Prince Fielder and David Wright led the offense.  Jared Weaver was probably their top pitcher over the course of the full season, but the key free agent signing of R.A. Dickey was also one of the biggest moves of the year.  Although the fourth place finish was disappointing, it may have been just as well that the Moonshiners finished a half point behind the Kings and Mavericks because they will now have the opportunity to pick before those two clubs in the draft.  One of the steadiest teams in the league, it seems like it will only be a matter of time before the Moonshiners break through with their first title.

    Finally, we have the defending champions.  Dropping from first to fifth is obviously a huge disappointment for the Jackalope, but it wasn’t necessarily all that surprising.  Rarely are teams able to catch all the breaks two years in a row.  While the ’11 Jackalope cruised to the title thanks to an unbeatable pitching staff and virtually no significant injuries, the ’12 squad wasn’t so lucky.  They still managed to lead the league in pitching points, but the rotation led by Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Ian Kennedy just wasn’t as dominating as a year ago.  Lee was especially unlucky, not winning his first game until June despite pretty decent peripheral numbers.  But the real problem was the offense.  Ryan Howard missed the first half of the season and wasn’t particularly effective after he returned.  Several of their youngsters had disappointing seasons.  Albert Pujols wasn’t even close to his usual elite self.  The two bright spots were Ryan Braun and Giancarlo Stanton.  The rest of the offense is going to need some work in the offseason.  But expect the pitching to bounce back next year, which should keep them in the hunt once again.

    The rest of the league has some work to do to catch these top five teams.  But history has shown that breakthrough seasons are likely again next year.  I will recap the disappointing 2012 season for the bottom five teams later this week.

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