News from the Dream Team Baseball League

  • The Stretch Run

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Choppers outfielder Jayson Werth

    I’m not sure we will ever see a final week of a baseball season quite like last year’s when five teams had a great chance to win the DTBL title right up to the last few pitches of the season.  So compared to that, this year’s pennant race may seem a little boring.  But for the four teams who have found themselves near the top of the standings most of the year, there is plenty of drama left in this season.

    Let’s start with the team that came out of last year’s wild finish with the title.  The Naturals haven’t quite been able to replicate last year’s success.  They currently sit in fourth place, 11 points behind the leader.  I’ll be honest, it doesn’t appear that they will be able to successfully defend their title.  They just have too much ground to make up and too many teams to catch.  The only case you could make for them to win this thing would be to put up an obscene stat line in the last week combined with a collapse from the three teams above.  Part of the Naturals problem has been that the player they depend on the most, Miguel Cabrera, has been severely limited by injuries over the last month or so.  Without his typical mashing, the Naturals offense just hasn’t been that strong.  Also, the September injury to Allen Craig couldn’t have come at a worse time with nobody capable of replacing him.  Their pitching has actually been very good of late, recently passing the Kings in both ERA and WHIP.  However, I just don’t see enough categories where gaining additional points is possible to give them a realistic shot at winning this thing.

    The case for the Choppers winning the league is much stronger.  The surprise team of the year, the Choppers have been on fire of late.  Their surprising pitching staff is now second in the league in pitching points, leading the way in saves and an impressive second place in ERA.  Chris Sale has been a beast all year, despite the unfortunately low win total.  C.J. Wilson is quietly having an outstanding year as well.  The Choppers offense has been slugging their way up the standings too.  It appears they will finish the season on top of the home run and RBI categories.  If there were such a thing as second half MVP, Jayson Werth would be a strong candidate for it.  Their key injury is to Jose Baustista, but his loss hasn’t really hurt their offense at all.  The Choppers opportunities to pick up points are limited, but average and runs are the two to watch, especially since the teams they are chasing in those categories are the two ahead of them in the overall standings.  They definitely need the Kings and Mavericks to drop a couple points this week, but that is very possible.  Assuming they hang onto a top 3 spot, this will be their best finish since 2001.  But they still have higher aspirations than just that.

    The Kings have been the title favorites for a while now.  They have topped the standings most of the season.  On occasion during the middle of the summer, it looked like they might run away with the title as they frequently held a double digit point lead.  But now they are hanging on for dear life.  They actually gave up the lead for a few days near the end of August.  But a couple strong weeks since have boosted them back to the lead.  The moment when things started turning south for the Kings is easy to identify:  when their best player, Carlos Gonzalez, suffered his finger injury in early July.  The Kings have had to move on without him for virtually the entire second half of the season.  But fortunately for them, they have found a few guys to pick up the slack on offense down the stretch, led by Ryan Zimmerman.  The recent concern has been with the previously solid pitching staff.  In the last week, they coughed up several points in ERA and WHIP.  Barring a terrible last week, they should be safe from losing more points in most pitching categories though.  Their vulnerability comes in two key categories:  runs scored (currently 1st) and stolen bases (4th).  If they can hold off the Choppers and/or Mavericks in those categories, they should be able to claim their fifth DTBL championship.  That is hardly a sure thing at this point though.

    I saved the Mavericks for last because I have a little more to say about them.  There were two big stories involving the Mavericks in August which deserved their own articles, but I had a few hectic weeks around that time and wasn’t able to make the time to write about them.  First, the Mavericks and Jackalope pulled off a major deadline trade.  The Mavs sent shortstop Jurickson Profar, first baseman Eric Hosmer and their third round pick in 2014 to the Jackalope for shortstop Elvis Andrus, second baseman Daniel Murphy, relief pitcher Steve Cishek and a fifth round draft pick.  The most fascinating thing about this trade is that the two key players in the deal, Andrus and Profar, have had their careers so tightly tied to one another the last couple years.  Profar was widely considered the top prospect in baseball entering this season.  The problem is, he is a shortstop for the Rangers, who happen to already have a pretty good shortstop by the name of Andrus.  Profar has spent the entire season on the MLB roster, but has been a part time player, seriously hampering his fantasy value.  But the Jackalope weren’t too worried about that considering this season was already a lost cause for them anyway.  Expect the Rangers to fix this log jam in the winter, especially if they wind up missing the playoffs which now appears quite possible.  Andrus and Profar should both be everyday players by next spring.  The Jackalope also received an intriguing player in Hosmer, who is finally starting to show some of that potential that hasn’t been seen since his rookie year.  This trade makes all the sense in the world for the Jackalope, acquiring two keepers for one as they begin their rebuild.  Likewise, the Mavericks made a major upgrade at their weakest spot:  middle infield.  Cishek has given them a boost in the bullpen, which is now one of the league’s best to go along with their unbeatable rotation.  I’m already declaring this trade a win/win for both sides.

    The other piece of Mavericks news in late August was not nearly as positive.  Phenom pitcher Matt Harvey was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his elbow.  Usually, this leads to Tommy John surgery, but as of now it appears Harvey will try to rest and rehab without surgery.  This will be a huge story next spring, because if he does succumb to surgery, that would obviously be a huge blow to the Mavericks for 2014.  But as for this season, the injury has not had a major impact because the Mavericks had/have such an enormous lead in the three categories where Harvey provided the most value:  ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  If the Mavericks don’t win the title, it won’t be because Harvey got hurt.  But this story clearly put a bit of a damper on their championship hunt.

    The Mavericks are definitely the team with the best chance of catching the Kings in the final week.  I can’t really put a probability figure on it, but I think they have a great chance.  The Kings have been very vulnerable for a couple months now and have anything but a safe lead in a couple key categories, as described above.  The Mavericks need a big week from their offense though.  Like all of the other title contenders, the Mavericks are going down the stretch without one of their best offensive players.  Team home run leader Edwin Encarnacion had season ending wrist surgery just last week.  But the Mavericks have likely maxed out in the power categories anyway.  Batting average, runs scored and stolen bases are the key.  And they just happen to have the best player in baseball when it comes to contributing to all three of those categories:  Mike Trout.  Just like last season, Trout is finishing this campaign on fire.  He will attempt to carry most of the load for the Mavs in the final week.  His heroic effort down the stretch last season came up just short.  Perhaps this year will be different.

    So we have four teams vying for the title.  It should be a fun week.  Unfortunately, if the title comes down to the final day like it did last season, I won’t be able to do another live blog/tweet event because I will be spending most of Sunday behind the wheel driving back from South Bend.  So you will be on your own to figure out what’s going on.  The live stats should make that much easier to do this year though, if you are so inclined.  Good luck to the championship contenders!

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  • Biogenesis Fallout

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez

    It has been about two weeks since all of the Biogenesis related suspensions were handed out by Major League Baseball, so I am very late to the party.  For the most part, I am tired of the story and have nothing particularly insightful to add.  But there are pretty significant baseball implications here, so I feel the need to write a little bit about it.  Fortunately, I will be able to quickly bury this post with a much more interesting article (to me) coming in the next day or two.  In case you didn’t notice, there was a pretty big trade made before the deadline last week.  But first, here are some of my Biogenesis thoughts along with the impact the suspensions will have on the DTBL.

    I have to admit that I was very skeptical of the entire Biogenesis story when it was made public earlier this year.  It seemed far too coincidental that many of the players being implicated in the story just happened to be most of the players who had tested positive for PEDs and/or served drug related suspensions last year.  As it turns out, there was a good reason for this.  All of these players were receiving their PEDs from the same source:  Tony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic.  Many have stated that these suspensions and subsequent admissions of guilt are a black eye on the sport of baseball.  I don’t see it that way.  In fact, I think it is somewhat encouraging that most of the players suspended in the last year and a half had ties to this now defunct clinic.  This is not to say I believe PEDs have been completely eradicated from the league now that Biogenesis is no more.  But I believe these suspensions are a positive step towards cleaning up the game.  Cheaters are getting caught and punished.  That is more than could be said as recently as five years ago.  Also, while there is still plenty of room for improvement in the drug testing and punishment program, MLB is so far ahead of the other three major professional sports leagues in this regard, it isn’t even worth comparing.  That MLB seems to take far more heat than the NFL for having a PED problem is completely ridiculous.

    To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of the Biogenesis scandal has been the way it has been covered by the media.  Not only the overwhelming number of articles on the topic, but the extent to which specific guilty players have been skewered as cheaters and liars.  They are indeed both of those things, but this isn’t new information.  Almost everyone besides die-hard Brewers fans and Aaron Rodgers knew Ryan Braun was guilty of taking PEDs when he avoided a suspension on a pure technicality following a failed drug test.  The fact that he is now admitting his guilt after accepting a 65 game suspension is not particularly interesting news, in my opinion.  He certainly owes a major apology to the sample handler whose character he attacked, among allegedly much worse things, as the Braun drama continues.  And the Brewers fans who have stuck by Braun throughout his career have every right to be angry.  But other than that, I don’t see Braun as much more of a villain than any of these other suspended players, past or present.  Almost all of these guys attempted to do whatever they could to avoid punishment, just as Braun did.  Heck, somewhat hilariously, Melky Cabrera tried to create an entire web site to prove his innocence.  But he seems to have been forgiven as he is now yesterday’s news.  Braun and Alex Rodriguez just happen to be the biggest names in this story, and are therefore receiving the most attention.

    And then there is ARod and his pending 211 game suspension.  I am really curious to see what kind of dirt MLB has on him, because on the face of it, the largest drug related suspension in league history seems a bit harsh for a player who has not tested positive under the current drug testing regime.  I have no opinion on how much of a suspension he deserves without knowing exactly what he did, but again I state that almost all of these players have taken steps to try to duck the long arm of the law.  Just how serious ARod’s offenses were in comparison will be interesting to see.  I would hope the fact that pretty much everybody wants him to just go away, including his own employer, had no bearing on the decision to give him this unprecedented year and a half ban.  Just because everyone hates him isn’t enough of a reason to cast him out to sea.  But the willingness of the rest of these players to accept their punishments leads me to believe that MLB’s evidence is pretty solid.  So the ARod saga continues.

    Now for the DTBL impact of Biogenesis.  Despite some huge names going down in this scandal, it doesn’t appear to be particularly likely to swing the DTBL title race in one direction or another.  Almost all of the suspended players happen to be on non-contending teams.  Losing Braun is just another major blow in a nightmare season for the Jackalope.  They will finish this season without the two main faces of their franchise (Braun and Albert Pujols, who was just ruled out for the season due to his foot injury).  The Moonshiners will be without the services of Jhonny Peralta, but they too are in the midst of a disappointing season.  Nelson Cruz will be out of the Gators lineup for 50 games.  The Gators currently sit in last place, but seem to be building a more competitive team for the future.  Losing Cruz won’t really change much.  Ditto for Everth Cabrera and the Demigods.  The one suspended player on a contending team is Jesus Montero of the Naturals.  However, he had been sent to AAA a couple months ago and didn’t figure to play much of a role down the stretch for the Naturals anyway.  Finally, Alex Rodriguez has been a free agent all season after the Kings finally cut him last winter.  Interestingly enough, there is a chance a DTBL team might take a flyer on him before the year is over since he is finally healthy and doesn’t figure to have his appeal ruled upon until very late in the season, if not after it.  Despite receiving the biggest punishment of any Biogenesis player, he may be the only one on a DTBL active roster in September.  Well, maybe Melky Cabrera (Gators) too since he did not receive any additional punishment having served his suspension last year.  Same for Yasmani Grandal (Naturals) , but he’s out for the year with a knee injury anyway.

    To close things out, in regards to Biogensis, I am going to steal a line from The Band Perry:  All I want to be is done!

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  • Mavericks’ Mound Masters

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Mavericks pitcher Matt Harvey

    There is a commonly held belief in baseball that it is better to build a team around offense and every day players due to the unpredictable nature of pitching.  While I tend to agree with this, I think it is far less relevant in fantasy baseball and certainly hasn’t been the case in this league.  In the past ten years, this league has gone through three distinct eras of a single team dominating the league in pitching for an extended period of time.  We have not seen this sort of consistency on the batting side of things, with no team leading the league in batting points for more than two consecutive years in league history.

    Starting in 2003, the Mavericks led the league in pitching points three out of four years, winning two DTBL titles in that stretch.  Then came the Darkhorses reign from 2007-2009 where they won the championship and led the way in pitching all three seasons.  Finally, the Jackalope topped the league in pitching the past three seasons, including one league title.  But it appears we are about to start a new era of mound domination.  The Mavericks are back on top of the pitching standings, and when you look at their rotation, it is hard to see them giving up that spot anytime soon.

    The Mavericks team pitching stats are nearly unbelievable.  They are on pace to obliterate the league record for team ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  Even with nearly two months to go, it is virtually inconceivable that they could lose their spot at the top of those three categories, and only slightly conceivable that they WON’T wind up as the new team record holder in each category.  Here’s a look at each of the three.  Their 2.63 ERA leads the league by more than 3/4 of a run per 9 IP.  The all-time record is 2.83 by the 2011 Jackalope.  So they are 0.20 below the best single season mark in league history.  Next, their 1.03 team WHIP is completely absurd.  You wouldn’t have to go back very far to find seasons where no single qualifying pitcher had a WHIP that low, forget an entire staff (2008 to be exact).  The record in that category also belongs to the ’11 Jackalope at 1.12.  Finally, they entered today with 962 strike outs, 93 clear of second place.  That puts them on pace for approximately 1,390 strike outs at year’s end.  The record in that category is 1,333 by the Mavericks’ own ’07 squad.  If they keep up the pace in these three categories, there will be very little room for debate when it comes to the greatest pitching staff in league history.

    But here’s the strange part.  Despite all of those eye-popping numbers, the Mavericks only find themselves in third in wins.  If there was ever a staff that proves how useless the wins category is for evaluating the quality of pitchers, this is the one.  The main reason for the low win total is because most of the Mavericks’ pitchers play for weak offensive MLB teams and have been the victims of criminally poor run support.  I’ll get to more of that in a bit.  They are also only fifth in the saves category, but that figures to change soon since they are one of the few teams with four current closers in the bullpen.

    According to ESPN’s fantasy baseball player rater, two of the top three pitchers in baseball this year are Mavericks:  Clayton Kershaw (#1) and Matt Harvey (#3).  If it weren’t for poor run support (and bullpen, in Harvey’s case), they would probably be the top two and would also likely be the first two pitchers selected if we were to re-draft all of our teams today.  They also happen to be #1 and #2 in the league in both ERA and WHIP, with Kershaw leading the way in both.  Kershaw’s 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP probably won’t be enough to break the all-time records held by Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, but those numbers would both be the lowest in the league since Pedro’s ridiculous 2000 season.  Harvey’s 2.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at either.  And he leads Kershaw in strike outs (172 to 161), but trails Yu Darvish for the league lead.  Quite simply, these are your top two Cy Young candidates, even ahead of Max Scherzer and his 16 wins.

    Then there is Stephen Strasburg.  In many ways, this has felt like a disappointing season for last year’s #2 overall pick.  But he has a 3.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and more than a strike out per inning.  Don’t let the win total fool you.  Strasburg is one of the best pitchers in baseball too.  Perhaps flying under the radar due to the aforementioned trio of stud pitchers is Mat Latos.  Latos is tied with Kershaw for the team lead in wins with 10 and has more strikeouts than Strasburg.  Then there is Matt Garza who has posted an ERA under 2.00 in his partial time on the Mavericks major league roster.  And don’t forget injured Alex Cobb who was looking like another one of the best up-and-coming pitchers before getting struck in the head by a line drive in June.  If he’s able to fully recover from that, the Mavericks will have an embarrassment of riches and some tough decisions to make this winter.  No matter what they decide, this staff looks unbeatable for the near future.  The rest of the owners may not want to read the following list of the ages of the Mavericks starting pitchers:  Kershaw 25, Harvey 24, Strasburg 25, Latos 25, Garza 29, Cobb 25.

    Going back to the wins category, where the Mavericks currently sit in third place, the reason is clear:  poor run support.  Strasburg’s meager five wins are far more of a reflection on his Nationals teammates than himself.  He has received just 2.76 runs of support per start, trailing only Chris Sale among all starting pitchers for worst run support.  Kershaw has managed to win 10 games despite being eighth on that same list.  With even average support, he would probably have 15 wins by now.  Harvey’s eight wins are also due to poor support, both offensively and by his bullpen.  Not that any of these guys are likely to suddenly receive great support, you would think their luck might turn around a bit before the year is over.

    One minor issue for the Mavericks in their championship hunt could be one that plagued them a year ago as well:  a starting pitcher shutdown.  In case you have forgotten, the Mavericks lost Strasburg for most of the final month last season as the Nationals controversially decided to shut down their ace during the pennant race after reaching a previously established innings limit.  Strasburg is good to go this October, except it appears his team is unlikely to qualify for the playoffs.  But it remains to be seen if the Mets will put an innings limit on Matt Harvey this year.  They won’t have much to play for in September, so they could opt to shelve him after he gets over 200 or so innings.  But unlike Strasburg, this isn’t likely to cost him an entire month.  Also, the Mavericks figure to have a safe lead in all of the key categories in which Harvey can help them anyway.  Not to mention, they should have Cobb or Garza waiting in the wings to fill in.  So while the Strasburg shutdown certainly didn’t help the Mavericks championship chances last year, there is little worry of this situation repeating itself this year.  If the Mavericks fail to win the title, it won’t be because of their pitching.

    In other news, it sounds like stuff is about to hit the fan in the Biogenesis case, possibly tomorrow.  I will begrudgingly write about this soon, even though I am tired of the story and don’t really want to hear about it anymore.  I will at least write about the potential impact on our league though.

    Also, a reminder that the trade deadline is coming up soon.  Trades must be submitted and accepted by the end of August 15.  After that, no trades can be made until after roster cuts early next year.  If you are completing a trade which includes 2014 draft picks, both parties must confirm the deal with me via email.  I plan on rectifying the inability to trade future draft picks via the web site before next season.

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  • National Pitchers Shine in Victory

    Written by:

    Kevin
    All-Star Game MVP Edwin Encarnacion

    A couple months ago, I wrote an article with the headline “A Strikeout Epidemic”.  I could have used it again to headline this recap of the 20th DTBL All-Star Game.  On Wednesday night at Moonshiner Ballpark, home of Mike’s Moonshiners, 29 at bats resulted in a strikeout.  Amongst all of the whiffs, the National Division was able to string together enough hits to pull out a 5-1 victory over the American Division.  The National pitchers were dominant from start to finish, striking out 15 hitters, walking none, and surrendering just four hits.

    The National All-Stars set the tone early against American starting pitcher Cliff Lee.  Mike Trout started the game by walking on four pitches and scored two batters later on a double by Evan Longoria.  A Chris Davis single moved Longoria to third with one out.  But the National All-Stars failed to break the game open, and started the K parade when the next two batters were retired on strikes.  Again in the second, the National Division looked poised to run away with things.  Buster Posey started the inning with a single, advanced to third on a double by Adam Jones and scored on an infield single by Ian Desmond.  But once again, the threat didn’t amount to much as two of the next three hitters struck out.  The 2-0 lead would prove to be all they would need though.

    Max Scherzer started the big night for National pitchers with two scoreless innings, striking out three.  Matt Harvey followed with a pair of strikeouts in his inning.  Then Adam Wainwright turned it up a notch, striking out all three batters he faced in the fourth.  The biggest hit of the night came in the top of the fifth.  Facing Chris Sale with one man on and two outs, Edwin Encarnacion worked Sale through a nine pitch battle, ending with a two run home run to deep left.  This gave the National squad a commanding 4-0 lead at the mid-point of the game.

    The American Division finally got on the board in the bottom of the 8th.  Andrew McCutchen hit a solo home run on a 0-2, 2 out pitch from Yu Darvish.  It was McCutchen’s second hit of the night, giving him half of the American’s total hits.  Mariano Rivera made his final DTBL All-Star Game appearance in the top of the 9th, but it was not nearly the fairy tale ending that the real Rivera provided the night before.  He surrendered the final run of the game, a sacrifice fly by David Ortiz scoring Longoria.  Sergio Romo took the mound with a four run lead in the bottom of the 9th and, fittingly, struck out the side to end the game.

    Scherzer was the winning pitcher and Lee took the loss.  There was a tough call for the MVP award.  Longoria reached base four times on two hits with a RBI.  Davis had three hits.  Sherzer had the two impressive innings on the mound.  But in the end, we decided to go with OOTP’s choice of Mavericks first baseman Edwin Encarnacion.  His two run homer was definitely the biggest hit of the game.

    You never know how these games will play out.  Although the 29 strike outs were pretty mind-boggling, the domination of the National pitching staff was not.  They had as strong of a collection of starting pitcher as you will ever see.  In fact, the National Division could have fielded a very strong 5-man rotation of guys who didn’t even make this team.  Both teams had impressive lineups, but good pitching beat good hitting on this night.

    We had some technical difficulties, so the game wasn’t played quite the way I had planned.  Nick had connectivity issues, making the webcast a no-go.  So we went “old school” and started a Facebook chat with me typing in the play-by-play, which is pretty much how we did things until the LiveStream idea popped up a couple years ago.  So I apologize to anyone who tried to tune into the webcast last night.  We’ll try something similar next year, although I’m thinking about switching to a Google+ Hangout.  But we’ll worry about that a year from now.

    I hope you had a restful All-Star break.  The baseball action resumes tomorrow!

    Here is the box score from last night’s game.

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  • 2013 DTBL All-Stars

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Jackalope All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

    Next week, the 20th DTBL All-Star Game will be played.  Mike’s Moonshiners will be the host squad.  The game is tentatively scheduled for late next Wednesday night.  The American Divsion will be managed by Nick, on the strength of his championship last season.  On the National side, the Kings and Mavericks tied for second place, therefore they also tied for the right to manage in the All-Star Game.  The Kings “won” the tiebreaker (head-to-head category comparison), which led to the Mavericks picking in front of the Kings in this year’s draft.  But it also means that I will be managing the National All-Stars.  I decided to include Marc in the roster decision-making process though.  Nick, Marc and I broke all voting ties for starter and reserve spots, and chose the 23rd player for each roster.  Here are the 2013 DTBL All-Stars:

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Max Scherzer, Kings
    • Catcher – Buster Posey, Demigods
    • First Base – Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks
    • Second Base – Robinson Cano, Kings
    • Third Base – Evan Longoria, Demigods
    • Shortstop – Ian Desmond, Kings
    • Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings
    • Outfield – Adam Jones, Mavericks
    • Outfield – Mike Trout,  Mavericks

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Wilin Rosario, Kings
    • First Base – David Ortiz, Demigods
    • Second Base – Jason Kipnis, Cougars
    • Outfield – Chris Davis, Cougars
    • Outfield – Carlos Beltran, Kings
    • Outfield – Jay Bruce, Kings
    • Pitcher – Matt Harvey, Mavericks
    • Pitcher – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    • Pitcher – Adam Wainwright, Cougars
    • Pitcher – Yu Darvish, Demigods
    • Relief Pitcher – Jason Grilli, Kings
    • Relief Pitcher – Grant Balfour, Cougars
    • Relief Pitcher – Sergio Romo, Darkhorses
    • Relief Pitcher – Ernesto Frieri, Darkhorses

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Cliff Lee, Jackalope
    • Catcher – Yadier Molina, Choppers
    • First Base – Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope
    • Second Base – Howie Kendrick, Gators
    • Third Base – Miguel Cabrera, Naturals
    • Shortstop – Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals
    • Outfield – Jose Bautista, Choppers
    • Outfield – Mark Trumbo, Choppers
    • Outfield – Nelson Cruz, Gators

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – J.P. Arencibia, Moonshiners
    • First Base – Joey Votto, Naturals
    • Third Base – David Wright, Moonshiners
    • Shortstop – Jean Segura, Gators
    • Outfield – Michael Cuddyer, Gators
    • Outfield – Andrew McCutchen, Naturals
    • Pitcher – Felix Hernandez, Jackalope
    • Pitcher – Hisashi Iwakuma, Gators
    • Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers
    • Pitcher – Jordan Zimmermann, Naturals
    • Relief Pitcher – Joe Nathan, Moonshiners
    • Relief Pitcher – Mariano Rivera, Choppers
    • Relief Pitcher – Craig Kimbrel, Choppers
    • Relief Pitcher – Aroldis Chapman, Jackalope

    All-Stars per team:

    • 8 – Kings
    • 6 – Choppers
    • 5 – Gators, Mavericks, Naturals
    • 4 – Cougars, Demigods, Jackalope
    • 3 – Moonshiners
    • 2 – Darkhorses

    For those of you wondering how in the world Chris Davis isn’t a starter, have no fear, he will be starting the game.  Four National outfielders were unanimous choices (including Davis), so we decided to make Davis the designated hitter.  Jay Bruce and Joey Votto were the 23rd players selected for each roster.  On paper, the National Division roster looks much stronger.  But history has shown that to mean very little when it comes to the actual game.  As usual, we’ll be using OOTP to simulate the game and will probably be doing another live webcast, so stay tuned for that.  Here are the full voting results.

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  • Second To None

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Cougars outfielder Chris Davis

    This article is brought to you by the number two. For the second straight year, second round draft picks are making a major impact on the balance of power in the league. Two teams, in particular, have struck it rich in the second round. A year ago, the Mavericks pulled off one of the all time heists when they grabbed Mike Trout in the second round, and nearly won the league because of it. Because of the Trout thing, the Cougars second round pick of Gio Gonzalez was overlooked a bit. But all he did was lead the league in wins and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. This year, the Mavericks and Cougars did it again, drafting MVP and Cy Young candidates in the second round. The Cougars picked outfielder Chris Davis with the 13th pick in the draft and the Mavericks acquired starting pitcher Matt Harvey with the 18th pick.

    Everyone thought last year was the breakout year for Chris Davis, when he finally reached his potential as a big time power hitter. But his 2012 wasn’t anything compared to what he is doing this year. He currently leads the league with 30 home runs, an incredible total before the end of June in the post-steroids era. He is six clear of the next highest home run total. His 79 RBI trails only Miguel Cabrera and his .333 batting average ranks fourth. Another incredible season by Cabrera is the only thing keeping Davis from being the clear MVP favorite.

    Davis was a highly touted prospect and was a first round draft pick by the Mavericks in 2009. But he was a huge disappointment for them and was cut at the end of his DTBL rookie season. The Choppers took a chance on him in the fourth round the following year, but released him two months into the season. He didn’t make it back onto a DTBL roster until the Naturals signed him as a free agent last season. He proceeded to have a breakout season, hitting 28 home runs for the Naturals, nearly tripling his previous DTBL career total.

    There is an obvious similarity between the Gonzalez and Davis selections by the Cougars. Neither were DTBL rookies and their previous teams would probably like a re-do on their decisions not to keep them. In the case of Davis, the Naturals were in a tough spot because of their surplus of quality hitters. Davis was classified as a first baseman last year (and almost certainly will be again next year), but moved to the outfield this year. Usually, such a position switch would increase a player’s value. But the Naturals had another guy making the opposite switch (Allen Craig), so the Davis position move wasn’t a major issue. The Naturals still have a loaded offense though, so the loss of Davis hasn’t been as crippling as you might have otherwise expected.

    Matt Harvey has already become a “must watch” pitcher, in just his second season in the big leagues. He has been completely dominant in virtually every start this season. He leads the league in ERA (2.00) and WHIP (0.85) and trails only fellow DTBL rookie Yu Darvish in strike outs (132). If he is able to keep that WHIP number where it is, it would be the third best single season value in league history and the best since 2000. It’s only a weak Mets offense and bullpen that is keeping his win total down at just seven. Just like Trout did a year ago, it is Harvey who is most responsible for the Mavericks being right in the thick of the championship race, currently in second place and just 5 1/2 points out of first.

    After several years of mediocre results from their surplus of early draft picks, the Mavericks have really struck gold the last two years. Last year it was Trout and Stephen Strasburg. This year it is Harvey and Manny Machado. While Trout was a bit of a surprise pick last year, one that every other DTBL team regrets allowing to happen, Harvey was very much on the radar for several teams. I know for a fact that Harvey would not have made it out of the second round had the Mavericks passed on him. But he was still the sixth starting pitcher to go, so there are obviously a few teams regretting their decisions again this year.

    Davis and Harvey aren’t the only second round picks who are having great years. Carlos Gomez is having a huge year for the Demigods. Jeff Samardzija is pitching very well for the Jackalope, and is helping make up for what is looking like one of the all time first round busts for the Jackalope in Danny Espinosa. Glen Perkins has been one of the best closers in baseball, rewarding the Naturals for their second round pick.

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  • A Terrific Trio of Tigers

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Kings pitcher Max Scherzer

    This season marks the 10th anniversary of Kevin’s Kings most recent DTBL Championship.  They are attempting to cap off the celebration this year by becoming the first franchise to win a fifth league title.  They are the current front-runners, holding a nine point lead over the Mavericks.  The primary reason for their lead is a dominant pitching staff led by three Detroit Tigers teammates:  Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez.

    It can be a dangerous proposition to put all of your proverbial eggs in a single MLB team’s basket, but that is largely what the Kings are doing.  With three fifths of their rotation consisting of Tigers pitchers, the Kings could have been doomed if this Tigers squad seriously underachieved.  While Detroit is not running away with anything, their hitting and pitching have largely lived up to expectations, rewarding the Kings along the way.  The Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez trio has been especially dominant.

    These three pitchers are having great seasons, with each of them contributing very similar numbers.  All three are on the league leaderboard in strike outs, averaging more than a strike out per inning.  They all have at least six wins with ERAs of 3.70 or better and very solid WHIPs.  Together, they have helped boost the Kings to the top of the league in wins and near the top in the other pitching categories as well.  Each took a different path to get to this point of their career with the Kings, however.

    Verlander has been the ace of the Kings staff, and one of the top pitchers in the league, ever since the Kings selected him in the third round of the 2009 draft.  This year, he has been solid, but not spectacular.  In fact, he probably has the worst numbers of this Tigers trio.  Scherzer and Sanchez both have better ERAs and WHIPs and even have more strike outs than Verlander to this point.  But still, Verlander’s 87 strike outs and seven wins are nothing to sneeze at.  He’s the safest bet to keep up the current pace for a full season since he’s done it four straight years.  He has had a minimum of 17 wins and 219 strike outs in every season with the Kings.  He is second, behind Randy Johnson, in franchise history in ERA, WHIP and strike outs.

    Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.  He won his eighth game of the year this afternoon, tying him for most in the league.  His impressive 0.89 WHIP is second best, as is his strike out total which reached the 100 mark this afternoon.  He’s been fairly unlucky to have an ERA over 3 (3.24) when looking at the rest of his numbers.  But he’s on pace to set career bests in all four relevant categories.  Scherzer was acquired in a trade with the Jackalope back in 2010.  At the time, he was stuck on the bench for a Jackalope squad that had one of the strongest rotations in league history.  Now he’s playing a leading role for the first place Kings.  He has been a solid strike out contributor for quite some time, but this year is the first time he’s put it all together for a significant stretch.  But his hot streak really started in the second half of last season.  His turnaround from a rough start was a key factor in the Kings near miss of the ’12 championship.

    Sanchez is the big surprise of this group.  He’s been a solid, but not spectacular player for several years.  But his inconsistency has led him to be shuffled in and out of the lineup since the Kings signed him as a free agent in 2011.  The potential has always been there though, which is why the Kings have continued to retain his services despite being a part time player for them prior to this season.  He won just seven games for the Kings a year ago, but is already at six this year.  His 2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are way better than his career marks.  And 98 strike outs in 78 innings blows away anything he has done before.  So if there is one candidate most likely to come down to earth, it would be Sanchez.  He’s in a much better situation than in previous years though.  He pitches for a very good offensive squad in a great pitcher’s ballpark.  If he can continue to pitch as he has so far this season, he will be a pretty impressive third option for both the Tigers and Kings.

    The Kings will need these three guys to continue to lead their staff because they got some bad news yesterday regarding another member of their rotation.  Jake Peavy has a broken rib and will miss at least 4-6 weeks.  It was Peavy who was expected to be the Kings number three guy behind Verlander and Scherzer.  But Sanchez has grabbed that spot and will try to lessen the blow of the loss of Peavy.

    Gators and Naturals Make a Deal

    In other (belated) league news, the Naturals and Gators completed this year’s first regular season trade a few weeks ago.  The Naturals dealt outfielder Starling Marte and their 8th round pick in 2014 to the Gators for relief pitcher Greg Holland and a 6th round pick.  The Naturals were in desperate need of a closer following the spring training loss of Jason Motte and a subsequent injury to Chris Perez (who has some interesting legal issues hanging over him now too).  Holland has been perfect for the Naturals so far, earning three saves with a spotless ERA.  Meanwhile, Marte figures to be another important piece in the Gators rebuilding process.  He has hit a rough patch since joining the Gators and is currently in their minors, but this trade was more about the future.  The Gators have a vastly improved offense following a few years of historic ineptitude with the bats.  Eventually, Marte should fit in nicely with the other good, young players the Gators have acquired in the last 12 months.

    The big story in baseball this week is ESPN’s report that MLB is seeking to suspend 20+ players, including some of the game’s biggest stars, in the wake of the Biogenesis PED investigation.  However, I don’t think this is worth discussing in any great detail until actual suspensions are handed out.  Call me a skeptic, but unless there is hard evidence beyond Tony Bosch’s personal testimony, I think MLB will have a hard time dolling out lengthy bans.  Bosch is simply not a credible witness.  But we’ll wait and see what other evidence is provided.  Stay tuned.

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  • A Strikeout Epidemic

    Written by:

    Kevin
    First baseman Adam Dunn

    It has been 15 years since I played competitive, organized baseball.  Although I never played above the high school level, I think I can accurately say that many things in the sport have changed over those 15 years.  One of those things is the perception and proliferation of strikeouts, both from a hitter’s and a pitcher’s point of view.  Aside from losing, there was nothing I hated more as a baseball player than finishing an at bat with a strikeout.  I would try my best to make sure that didn’t happen (often unsuccessfully).  I would shorten my swing with two strikes, choke up on the bat, and generally do whatever I could to put the ball in play.

    I believe a majority of professional hitters used to have a similar approach.  But I seriously doubt this is still the case.  The numbers would certainly indicate otherwise.  Today, Major League hitters are striking out at record breaking rates.  So far in 2013, teams are averaging 7.63 strike outs per game.  This is well ahead of last year’s all time high of 7.50.  Just five years ago, that number was 6.34 and a decade ago it was 5.80.  That is a pretty incredible increase in whiffs in just a ten year period.  And it’s having a major impact on the game.  Scoring is down to just 4.25 runs per team, per game.  That is the lowest rate since 1992.  The significant increase in drug testing is the most cited reason for the drop in offense in recent years, and I think that is a completely valid reason.  But the inability of hitters to put the ball in play is a major factor as well.

    So let’s figure out why this is happening.  Are pitchers just better than they were ten years ago?  Do they throw nastier offspeed pitchers that are tougher to hit?  Are teams more willing to promote and play guys who sacrifice contact for power?  Or, in general, do today’s hitters step up to the plate with significantly different approaches to hitting than the players from previous generations?  In my opinion, the answer to those questions are yes, yes, yes and yes.  The end result is less scoring and a whole lot more whiffing.

    During the Moneyball era of about a decade ago, the emerging philosophy to hitting was to take more walks.  Do whatever it takes to get on base.  Working a count in an attempt to walk naturally leads to more strikeouts as well.  There has always been a place in baseball for guys who strike out a ton, but hit for power and also receive more than their share of walks.  But what’s really interesting about the recent surge in strikeouts is that there has been no increase in walks at all.  In fact, last season’s 3.03 walks per team, per game was the lowest rate since 1968!  So the Moneyball era is clearly over.  What we have now is something entirely different.  It’s a pitching dominated league in which hitters struggle to reach base and strike out a ton.  And I hate it!

    This season, only one team has a worse offensive K/BB rate than my very own White Sox.  But since the Astros are fielding an AAA roster, I’ll put them aside and focus on the Sox instead.  They are the perfect example of what is wrong with today’s general approach to hitting.  Sure, they have plenty of guys who can hit home runs.  They have the 4th highest HR ratio in the league.  Yet only the Marlins and Dodgers score fewer runs per game.  This is because the Sox strike out at the third highest rate (an alarming 23.7% of their plate appearances end in strikeouts), yet find themselves as the least walked team in all of baseball!  Home runs are great.  I would much rather have guys who hit them than guys who don’t.  But if you field a lineup full of players who don’t take walks and constantly strike out, you are going to struggle to score and will lose a lot of games.  That is exactly what is happening to the Sox this year.  Their leadoff hitter, Alejandro De Aza, has 42 strike outs (tied with teammate Adam Dunn for 9th in MLB).  Their #2 hitter, Jeff Keppinger, has not taken a walk this season in 117 plate appearances.  His laughably pathetic .188 OBP is somehow lower than his batting average.  After looking at the numbers from De Aza and Keppinger, it is no wonder why the Sox struggle to score.  They never have anybody on base when the heart of the order comes up.  The White Sox are hardly alone in their poor plate discipline numbers, but they are the best example of the current trend in the game.

    As a quick aside, have I ever mentioned how much I love Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs?  Easily my two favorite web sites.  All of the numbers I am quoting in this article came from one or the other.  Which leads me to my next topic.  FanGraphs has advanced stats in a category called “Plate Discipline”.  Here is a FG page displaying league-wide plate discipline stats for the past ten years.  These stats show how often players swing at, and make contact with, pitches inside and outside the strike zone.  For the most part, there haven’t been dramatic changes in these stats over this ten year period, except in three key categories:  O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), O-Contact% (percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat) and Zone% (overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone).  The O-Swing% and O-Contact% numbers have been creeping up, despite the overall swing and contact percentages remaining relatively steady.  This means hitters are swinging at far more pitches outside of the zone than they used to.  And they are seeing fewer strikes as a result (Zone% number has been trending downward).  So hitters are swinging at more bad pitches, allowing pitchers to throw fewer strikes yet walk about the same, if not fewer hitters.

    To me, these numbers scream out that there is a problem with plate discipline in baseball right now.  I’m not discounting the possibility that pitchers are simply getting better and are harder to hit.  In fact, I am almost certain that is the case.  But if I were a MLB general manager, I would definitely start looking for hitters who are more disciplined at the plate.  It might be time to go back to the Moneyball approach, with a twist.  It is fine to have a few hackers in the lineup, but you better find some players who will take a walk too.  And it isn’t the worst thing in the world to employ hitters who are  head and shoulders above their peers in terms of putting the ball in play, particularly if they bring other skills to the table like speed, elite defense, or maybe even decent power.

    I think there has been less of a change in how pitchers are viewed.  Strikeout pitchers have almost always been preferred over pitch-to-contact guys in the eyes of scouts and baseball execs.  Pitchers have a difficult time advancing through a system if they don’t produce impressive strikeout ratios.  This is nothing new.  But there has definitely been a decrease in the number of successful pitch-to-contact pitchers in the big leagues.  I saw one such pitcher in person just last night.  Nationals young lefty Ross Detwiler is a rare breed in today’s game.  He is a hard throwing lefty who just doesn’t strike out many hitters, but is still a very effective pitcher.  But I would have a hard time naming more than a couple other similar type of pitchers.

    I’d like to delve into the pitching side of things to a much greater extent some other time.  For now, I’m concluding that poor plate discipline and the willingness of teams to play guys who struggle to hit a baseball are leading factors in why we are seeing more strikeouts than ever before.  As one who despises strikeouts from a hitting perspective, I can only hope this trend will stop sometime soon.

    By the way, I had been planning on writing about this topic for a few weeks now, but happened to read a great article by CBS’s Scott Miller on this very thing just a few days ago.  I highly recommend his article which is obviously much more professional and thorough than mine.  You should check it out too.

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  • A Little Deja Vu

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

    Surprised by the Darkhorses quick start? Don’t think it can possibly last? Well, if history tells us anything about the Darkhorses, it’s that they bounce back rather quickly from rock bottom. 2012 was the third time in franchise history that the Darkhorses finished in last place. After finishing at the bottom in 2003, the Darkhorses jumped up to a third place finish in 2004, which at the time was their highest finish by a wide margin. Three years later, they made the ultimate jump in winning their first DTBL title (by 12 points) a year after finishing dead last. That kick-started four straight championship seasons. If the first three weeks of this season are any indication, the Darkhorses appear to be in the process of another remarkable turnaround.

    Nobody wins a championship in April, but getting off to a good start is very important, and is especially rewarding for a team coming out of the abyss. Pretty much anything that could have gone wrong for the Darkhorses the last two years did. They have been decimated by injuries and have seen some of their star players fade into mediocre contributors at best. But this is a new year with new opportunities.

    What makes the Darkhorses quick start especially impressive is that they haven’t exactly been a model of perfect health this year either. Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which forced the Darkhorses to waive him before the season started. Draft pick Jonny Venters was also released early because of arm trouble. Ryan Madson, Hanley Ramirez and Brian McCann are yet to make their 2013 debuts. Aramis Ramirez and Aaron Hill hit the DL shortly after the season began. So from a health standpoint, it appears to be more of the same for the Darkhorses. But fortunately for them, the guys who are in uniform are putting up some impressive numbers.

    The Darkhorses roster doesn’t exactly blow you away with players off to white hot starts. But their two most recent first round picks have been the biggest reason for the team’s quick start. Matt Moore is starting to show why the Darkhorses spent their first pick of 2011 on him. He has already won four games with a miniscule 1.04 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, this year’s first overall pick, Bryce Harper, continues to live up to lofty expectations. He is hitting a smooth .366 with seven home runs.

    Some other key contributors include newcomers Todd Frazier, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Ernesto Frieri and Tom Wilhelmsen. Basically their entire 2013 draft class. Some regression is likely, but so far, they have been getting great performances out of just about all of their picks.

    Three hold-over players deserve mentioning: Adrian Gonzalez, Tim Lincecum and Jacoby Ellsbury. Gonzalez and Lincecum may not be quite the same caliber players they were a few years back, but at least they are helping the team again. Ellsbury appears to be healthy this year and is leading the league in stolen bases.

    The Darkhorses currently lead the league by ten points. The Kings are the only team within 23 points of them. So yes, it is very early. But the Darkhorses are setting a strong pace. They have 41 1/2 batting points and 41 pitching points, so it has been a full team effort thus far. Usually, a bunch of teams exchange first place through the first month of the season. But the Darkhorses have held that top spot virtually the whole time. I believe the Kings are the only other team that has been in first place since the first week of the season, and that was a brief stay.

    The Darkkhorses fast start has been impressive, but not terribly surprising given the franchise’s history. Let’s see if they can keep it up.

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  • 2013 Season Preview: Part IV

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Mavericks pitcher Clayton Kershaw

    We have reached the final two teams in this journey up the projected 2013 DTBL standings.  The two teams that remain are not huge surprises.  Although neither of them came out on top last year (they tied for second), an argument could be made that they were the best two teams in the league as the season ended.  The Mavericks may have won the league had they not run out of free agent signings, which caused them to play a few players short in the last several weeks of the season.  Meanwhile, the Kings finally overcame their starting pitching problems which plagued them through the first half of the season.  By the end of the year, their pitching was as good as anyone’s.  Interestingly, these two teams may have helped each other claim these top spots in the projections with a trade they made during the first round of this year’s draft.  The Mavericks dealt one of their extra first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for a first round pick.  The Mavericks used that pick to acquire another youngster, Manny Machado, to add to their impressive squad of blossoming stars.

    Coincidentally, the standings through the first two full days of the 2013 season closely mimic the projected final standings, with the top four spots in the exact same order.  So here are the top two teams in those projections.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 5th (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
    • Wins – 3rd (4th-T)
    • Saves – 4th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 2nd (2nd-T)

    Summary:

    The Kings had the best offense in the league last year, partly due to their incredible depth.  For example, they were so strong in the middle infield that they routinely used their DH slot there, and yet Danny Espinosa barely made the major league roster all season.  Espinosa was a first round pick this year.  Their middle infield is still a huge strength with Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes and Ian Desmond.  They essentially have the same roster of hitters as last year since they used draft picks to reacquire Michael Morse and Jonathan LuCroy.  So this should be a very strong hitting team again.  The questions come on the mound.  These projections have the Kings moving up to third in pitching points, which would be a significant improvement.  Their pitching will likely go as the Tigers go since 3/5th of their rotation is identical to Detroit’s (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez).  If Scherzer can continue to build on his great second half of ’12, this team will be in good shape.  The bullpen appears to be stronger now with three closers after going through most of last season with just two.  This is the 10th anniversary of the Kings last championship.  Perhaps this will be the year they become the league’s first five time champion.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (5th)
    • Wins – 4th (4th-T)
    • Saves – 9th (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (6th)
    • Total Points – 1st (2nd-T)

    Summary:

    As it turns out, the Mavericks are on top of the projected standings by a fairly wide margin.  They lead the way in batting points, pitching points, and obviously total points, ten points clear of the Kings.  I’m not particularly surprised by this result, because as I mentioned up top, this was probably the best team in the league at the end of last season.  It will be interesting to see if those pitching projections pan out.  If they do, the Mavs will win this league.  Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg are probably among the best three or four pitchers in the league.  The rest of their rotation is loaded with potential, but is somewhat unproven.  The bullpen is really the only weakness of the entire team, but only because it lacks well entrenched closers.  The offense can be summed up in two words:  Mike Trout.  If he even comes close to matching his ridiculous 2012 campaign, the Mavericks will probably lead the league in batting points.  But he has plenty of help.  Jason Heyward, Adam Jones, Edwin Encarnacion and Matt Wieters will look to build upon their breakout seasons.  Will one of their other young guys take it to the next level this year?  There are too many candidates to name.  By no means are they a lock though.  Young talent is often unpredictable.  If a bunch of these guys fail to meet expectations this season, there will be a whole slew of other teams breathing down their necks.  But I think it is fair to say the Mavericks are the 2013 title favorites.

    Here is a look at the projected standings, with team totals in each category.  If you are wondering why the counting categories have decimal values, please go back to Part I of these previews where I explained my methodology.  Let me know if you would like me to share the full Google Doc with you so you can see the individual player projections as well.  Also, I apologize if the following table doesn’t look right.  This is my first attempt at embedding a Google Doc within a WordPress blog entry.  Hope it turns out!

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