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  • Harper Stars in National Victory


    Strikeouts have been a prevailing factor in DTBL All-Star Games basically dating back to when we started using OOTP to sim the games.  However, whiffs have really been kicked into overdrive the past five Mid-Summer Classics.  All previous iterations pale in comparison to what happened at The Landing Pad, home of Charlie’s Thunder Choppers, in the 24th annual DTBL All-Star Game.  36 batters were retired via strikeouts, obliterating the old record of 30 set two years ago.  National Division pitchers struck out 19 hitters while opposing American hurlers racked up 17 K’s.  The National All-Stars got the better results from balls that were actually put in play though.  Bryce Harper reached base five times, leading the National squad to a 5-2 victory.

    While 36 strikeouts is kind of ridiculous, it isn’t completely unbelievable when you look at the season stats of the pitchers on these two rosters.  And there are a fair number of All-Star hitters who strikeout at very high rates as well.  Yet the end results went way beyond anything that should have been expected.  This game was a BABIP inflator with the teams combining to hit .483 on balls in play.  Probably a good thing, or runs would have been really scarce.

    The starting pitching match-up was identical to the MLB All-Star Game last Tuesday:  Chris Sale for the American Division against Max Scherzer for the National Division.  Both pitched two scoreless innings in this game, but Scherzer was far more dominant.  He retired all six hitters he faced, four via strikeouts.  Sale managed to scatter three hits and a walk in his two scoreless frames.  In his second inning, the first three batters recorded hits, but Khris Davis threw out Ryan Zimmerman at the plate on a Ryon Healy single to keep the National All-Stars off the board for the time being.

    The American Division drew first blood in the top of the third when Salvador Perez homered off Clayton Kershaw.  Immediately following that, Kershaw allowed consecutive doubles to Corey Seager and Marcell Ozuna, which gave the American team a 2-0 lead.  That score would hold until the fifth.  Dallas Keuchel retired the first two hitters in the top of the fifth, but then ran into trouble.  Bryce Harper walked for the second of three times in the game.  Mike Trout then knocked him in with a double to deep right-center.  That cut the American lead in half heading to the second half of the game.

    One of the most pivotal moments of the game came in the bottom of the fifth.  The American All-Stars were looking to break things open against Carlos Martinez.  They loaded the bases thanks to a pair of walks and a Trea Turner pinch hit single.  Giancarlo Stanton came to the plate looking to unload the bases.  Instead, he grounded out to second to end the inning.  The Americans put a couple more runners on base via singles in the sixth, but that rally ended on a strikeout of Chris Owings by Corey Knebel.  The game was delayed due to rain for 66 minutes during the top of the 6th.  To the best of my recollection, this was the first rain delay in a DTBL All-Star Game.  Eventually, the game moved to the seventh with the American All-Stars still ahead 2-1.

    Greg Holland took the mound for the American Division to start the seventh.  He did not fare well.  Carlos Correa started the inning with a walk and immediately scored on a Charlie Blackmon double to tie the game.  Harper then walked yet again.  Holland managed to get Mike Trout to fly out and Aaron Judge to strikeout and was on the verge of escaping further damage.  But Jose Altuve knocked a clutch single up the middle to score the go-ahead run.  That would prove to be the difference.

    The National Division added some insurance in the ninth inning off the usually unhittable Craig Kimbrel.  Harper reached base safely for the fifth time, starting the inning with a bomb over the right field fence.  Trout made it back-to-back home runs with a 410 foot blast to left-center.  Kenley Jansen made quick work of the American team in the bottom of the ninth, striking out a pair and then getting Turner to ground out to end the game.  The National Division recorded a 5-2 victory.  Corey Knebel picked up the win, Greg Holland took the loss and Jansen earned the save.

    Bryce Harper was an easy selection as the game’s Most Valuable Player.  He reached base in all five plate appearances, going 2 for 2 with 3 walks, a home run and two runs scored.  Perhaps most notably, he did not strike out.  Very few other hitters in this game could make that claim.  Khris Davis wore the golden sombrero, striking out four times.  Another hitter with a less than spectacular game was Aaron Judge who struck out three times and hit into a double play.  Some of the top pitching performances belonged to Scherzer and his Nationals, and National Division, teammate Stephen Strasburg who combined to strike out seven batters in three innings.  On the American side, Roberto Osuna was the top pitcher, striking out all four batters he faced.

    This was the second straight victory for the National Division.  They now hold a 13-11 lead in the all-time DTBL All-Star series.  Next year will mark the 25th Anniversary of the league and the 25th All-Star Game.  Perhaps fittingly, Kevin’s Kings will have the honor of hosting that milestone game.

    Box Score

  • 2017 DTBL All-Stars


    The 2017 DTBL All-Star Game will be the 24th annual mid-summer classic between the American and National Divisions.  Charlie will be the manager for the American squad while I will take the reigns for the National team.  I haven’t decided exactly how the game will be played this year.  It will likely be played using the Out of the Park baseball simulation game again.  However, I may scale back the amount of time and effort I put into it this year.  This is TBD though.  I’ll announce the plans once they’ve been finalized.  The Choppers are the host team for this year’s game.  The last time they were host, ten years ago, the American Division won the biggest blowout in All-Star Game history, 17-2.  But the American team will be looking for revenge this year after losing by a dozen a year ago.

    As for the players making up the All-Star rosters, it is a pretty interesting group.  Not surprisingly, there are a whole bunch of guys with eye-popping offensive numbers.  But while pitchers have struggled a bit this season as a whole, you wouldn’t know it by looking at these guys’ stats.

    There are a few notable players who weren’t able to make the teams.  Much like the National League in MLB, the American Division features a ton of great third basemen this year, leading to the omission of Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rendon and Miguel Sano.  Outfielders Adam Duvall and Mookie Betts were among the most deserving non-invitees for the National squad.  Betts probably would have made it had a majority of the league not already voted before his monster game this past Sunday.

    Now for the guys who did make the teams.  Here are your 2017 DTBL All-Stars.

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers (6th All-Star appearance)
    • Catcher – Salvador Perez, Gators (2nd)
    • First Base – Joey Votto, Naturals (2nd)
    • Second Base – Brian Dozier, Moonshiners (2nd)
    • Third Base – Jake Lamb, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Shortstop – Corey Seager, Gators (2nd)
    • Outfield – Khris Davis, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Outfield – Corey Dickerson, Gators (1st)
    • Outfield – Marcell Ozuna, Naturals (1st)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Gary Sanchez, Jackalope (1st)
    • First Base – Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope (5th)
    • Third Base – Nolan Arenado, Naturals (3rd)
    • Shortstop – Chris Owings, Naturals (2nd)
    • Outfield – Trea Turner, Naturals (2nd)
    • Outfield – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope (4th)
    • Pitcher – Zack Greinke, Moonshiners (5th)
    • Pitcher – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners (2nd)
    • Pitcher – Robbie Ray, Moonshiners (1st)
    • Pitcher – Carlos Carrasco, Naturals (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Craig Kimbrel, Choppers (5th)
    • Relief Pitcher – Roberto Osuna, Moonshiners (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Greg Holland, Naturals (2nd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Raisel Iglesias, Naturals (1st)

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Max Scherzer, Kings (4th)
    • Catcher – Buster Posey, Demigods (6th)
    • First Base – Ryan Zimmerman, Demigods (1st)
    • Second Base – Daniel Murphy, Darkhorses (2nd)
    • Third Base – Ryon Healy, Kings (1st)
    • Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Darkhorses (3rd)
    • Outfield – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses (3rd)
    • Outfield – Aaron Judge, Mavericks (1st)
    • Outfield – Mike Trout, Mavericks (6th)

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Brian McCann, Darkhorses (4th)
    • First Base – Freddie Freeman, Demigods (2nd)
    • Second Base – Jose Altuve, Demigods (4th)
    • Shortstop – Carlos Correa, Kings (1st)
    • Outfield – George Springer, Darkhorses (2nd)
    • Outfield – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars (2nd)
    • Pitcher – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (7th)
    • Pitcher – Carlos Martinez, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Pitcher – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks (3rd)
    • Pitcher – Corey Kluber, Demigods (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Kenley Jansen, Mavericks (4th)
    • Relief Pitcher – Corey Knebel, Darkhorses (1st)
    • Relief Pitcher – Andrew Miller, Mavericks (3rd)
    • Relief Pitcher – Jim Johnson, Darkhorses (2nd)

    All-Stars per team:

    • 8 – Darkhorses, Naturals
    • 7 – Moonshiners
    • 6 – Mavericks
    • 5 – Demigods
    • 3 – Gators, Jackalope, Kings
    • 2 – Choppers
    • 1 – Cougars

    Nolan Arenado was selected as the 23rd player for the American Division.  On the National side, Elvis Andrus, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa all received eight votes.  Andrus was given the starting nod, so take your pick between Altuve or Correa as the official 23rd man.  Either way, all are deserving All-Stars.  Just like last year, there are 15 first time DTBL All-Stars, including the entire American starting outfield and headlined by Aaron Judge for the National Division.  Clayton Kershaw is the All-Star veteran, making his seventh appearance.  Buster Posey and Chris Sale are on their sixth All-Star squads.  Here are the full voting results.  More All-Star Game coverage coming soon.

  • Turner Breaks Wrist, Wins Award


    For the second consecutive month, one of the league’s top title contending teams is facing an uncertain future due to the loss of arguably their most irreplaceable player.  So far, the Mavericks have weathered the storm without Mike Trout quite nicely.  They have held onto first place for virtually the entire season and have built a relatively comfortable margin over all but one of their competitors.  The one team that is giving them everything they can handle is the Naturals.  As of this writing, the two teams are tied in first.  But while the Mavericks have Trout on the verge of returning, the Naturals will now be without young star outfielder (now shortstop) Trea Turner.  Turner broke his right wrist when getting hit by a pitch by the Cubs’ Pedro Strop last Thursday afternoon.  He figures to miss close to two months of action. Less than ideal for a Naturals team that is competing for a championship while already missing their best pitcher, Noah Syndergaard.  More on Turner in a bit.

    At the halfway mark of the season, it has become pretty clear that we are headed to a record breaking year for home runs and probably the best league-wide offensive numbers in 15 years.  The record for most home runs hit in the DTBL in a single season is 3,231 back in 2000.  Through Sunday, basically the exact mid-point of the season, 1,625 home runs had been hit.  Runs and RBIs are way up as well.  Even stolen bases are on pace to surpass the totals from the past few years.  Only batting average has stagnated.  Meanwhile, it has been a rough go for pitchers.  The league’s 3.90 ERA is up more than 3/10 of a run from last season and is higher than any full season mark since 2006.  Strikeouts remain the lone strong spot for pitchers compared to recent seasons.

    Despite the incredible power surge, it is guys with speed who have been among the biggest contributors to their teams this season.  Last month, Billy Hamilton won the Player of the Month award despite hitting just one home run.  This month’s honor goes to a guy who only hit a pair of homers in June.  Meanwhile, the Pitcher of the Month was earned by a hurler who has bounced back from a slow start in a big way.  Here are the award winners for June 2017.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 9 (5/29 – 6/4) – George Springer, Darkhorses
    Week 10 (6/5 – 6/11) – Gary Sanchez, Jackalope
    Week 11 (6/12 – 6/18) – Jose Ramirez, Gators
    Week 12 (6/19 – 6/25) – Corey Seager, Gators
    Week 13 (6/26 – 7/2) – Mookie Betts, Kings

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 9 (5/29 – 6/4) – Tanner Roark, Jackalope
    Week 10 (6/5 – 6/11) – Robbie Ray, Moonshiners
    Week 11 (6/12 – 6/18) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
    Week 12 (6/19 – 6/25) – Corey Kluber, Demigods
    Week 13 (6/26 – 7/2) – Max Scherzer, Kings

    The weekly hitter honors went to five guys who were just named to the MLB All-Star teams.  How many of them will make the DTBL All-Star squads as well?  Find out later today!  Interesting that Tanner Roark won a weekly award because he has really struggled recently, outside of that one week in late May, early June.  His Nationals teammate Max Scherzer has basically been a candidate for the weekly award every week this season.  Another one of the weekly winners edged him out for the monthly honor though.

    Batter of the Month:

    Trea Turner, Naturals
    .316 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 23 R, 22 SB, 3.51 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Corey Kluber, Demigods
    1.26 ERA, 0.674 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 64 K, 4.33 PAR

    Trea Turner’s incredible June ended poorly with the broken wrist, but prior to that, he was terrorizing pitchers and catchers throughout the league.  Famously, in one of his last games before the injury, he stole four bases off the Jake Arrieta/Miguel Montero duo, causing the latter to throw the former under the bus prior to being designated for assignment.  Turner stole 22 bases in June, the highest single month total since Jose Reyes stole 23 in August of 2007.  There have only been three 22+ stolen base months in DTBL history:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/cPbAS (Roger Cedeno wasn’t on a DTBL roster in ’99).  Prior to the injury, Turner had been on pace to challenge the league’s full season stolen base record as well.  But that has gone by the wayside with him expected to miss up to two months of action.  This was Turner’s honor pretty easily, but Mavericks young phenom Aaron Judge was the runner-up.

    It has been an interesting season for Corey Kluber.  After getting off to a rough start, he hit the disabled list in early May with an ERA north of 5.00.  But since returning, he has been dominant, to the point where the Demigods ace is now a strong All-Star candidate.  In June, hes sported an impressive 1.26 ERA and led the league with 64 strikeouts.  Despite very strong months from a couple other pitchers, Kluber won this award pretty handily.  His closest competition was a pair of pitchers you may have heard of: Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

    Stay tuned for the announcement of the 2017 DTBL All-Stars later today!

  • Trout Injury Dampens Mood


    You never want to see any player lose significant time due to injury, but especially not the elite players who make the game so fun to watch.  So when Mike Trout hit the disabled list earlier this week with a torn ligament in his thumb that figures to sideline him for a couple months, the whole baseball world took a hit.  Obviously, there are ramifications in this league as well.  The Mavericks have held a small but consistent lead almost the entire season so far.  But that will be put to the test in a big way in the upcoming months.  Can a team that was already mediocre offensively tread water long enough until Trout returns?

    The list of teams that figure to benefit from this opportunity is long.  In fact, at the 1/3 mark of the season schedule, all ten teams are legitimately still in the race.  Even before Trout went down, the Mavericks weren’t blowing away the competition.  And no team has completely tanked to this point either.  Due to an issue with my stats source, the stats haven’t been updated through Friday’s games yet, so I’m writing this looking at the numbers through Thursday.  At that time, the Mavs held a slim 1/2 point lead on the Naturals and just a point ahead of the Moonshiners as well.  Meanwhile, even the last place Choppers were only 20.5 points behind.  Making up that much ground in four months is certainly doable.

    The month of May saw 1,060 home runs hit across MLB, the second highest single month total in history.  Yet, shockingly, the DTBL Batter of the Month went to a guy who hit one measly homer.  But first, here are the guys who won the weekly honors in May.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 5 (5/1 – 5/7) – Billy Hamilton, Mavericks
    Week 6 (5/8 – 5/14) – Mookie Betts, Kings
    Week 7 (5/15 – 5/21) – Corey Dickerson, Gators
    Week 8 (5/22 – 5/28) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 5 (5/1 – 5/7) – Chris Sale, Choppers
    Week 6 (5/8 – 5/14) – Zack Greinke, Moonshiners
    Week 7 (5/15 – 5/21) – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
    Week 8 (5/22 – 5/28) – Lance McCullers, Kings

    No big surprises on the pitching list as some of the best pitchers in baseball were at the top of their games in May.  Even though pretty much all of the players listed above were strong contenders for Pitcher of the Month, the award went to someone else.  With the exception of Hamilton, the weekly award winners were certainly part of the huge power surge in May.  But as I hinted at earlier, it wasn’t a gaudy home run total that clinched the Batter of the Month honor.  Here are the players of the month for May 2017:

    Batter of the Month:

    Billy Hamilton, Mavericks
    .288 AVG, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 27 R, 18 SB, 3.10 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings
    2.27 ERA, 0.824 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 60 K, 3.19 PAR

    Safe to say Hamilton had the green light in May.  He stole 18 bases, which was six more than any other player.  He currently leads the league in steals with 28, which is twice the total of the next highest player!  He is on pace to blow past the DTBL single season stolen base record which is held by Jose Reyes who stole 78 bags in 2007.  Nobody has reached the 60 plateau since 2011, which Hamilton seems close to a lock to achieve, barring injury.  The rest of the offensive numbers were solid in May for Hamilton too.  It will be important for him to keep up the respectable hitting numbers while keeping the Mavericks offense afloat without Trout.  The race for this award wasn’t as close as you might have thought, but the runner-up was Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

    I had to do a double-take when I saw Scherzer atop the May pitching PAR leaderboard.  He had a couple very poor outings in the month, by his standards, including a game I saw in person in Atlanta in which his velocity was down and his command was off.  Yet he rebounded in a big way, striking out 24 batters in his final two starts of the month, one which was a complete game and another that was one out shy of that.  In total, he led the league with 60 strikeouts in the month.  He just barely won this award, edging out Kings teammate Lance McCullers and the Darkhorses’ Carlos Martinez.  This is the second time in three years that Scherzer has won this award in the month of May.

  • Homer/Whiff Trends Continue


    The early returns are in and the statistical trends of the past few seasons seem to be continuing into 2017.  Last year featured the most home runs in the DTBL since 2001 and the highest K/IP rate in league history.  I didn’t take the time to compute the exact home run and strikeout pace for the league this season, but based on MLB numbers, it appears the all-time league total single season home run and strikeout records are in jeopardy of falling this year.  In MLB, there have been 1.17 HR per team, per game this season, up slightly from 1.16 last year and virtually tied with the all-time record in 2000.  Considering that the weather hasn’t even started to heat up in many of the league’s cities yet, this number only figures to rise.  Meanwhile, batters are whiffing at a significantly higher rate than last season’s record breaking number.  So far this season, there have been 8.22 strikeouts per team, per game, way up from last year’s record 8.03.

    Obviously, the surge in home runs and strikeouts has a big impact on those two categories in this league, but other categories as well.  The league batting average sits at just .260 right now, which would be the lowest mark in league history by eight points!  While batters are reaching base safely via hits at a much lower rate, scoring overall is actually up.  The league ERA sits at 3.65, which is higher than the full season total from any of the past seven seasons.  So, in summary, strikeouts and homers are way up, runs are slightly up and batting average is way down.  The era of the three true outcome hitters (home runs, strikeouts, walks) appears to be here to stay for a while.

    Players of the Month are back again for another season.  As usual, these awards will be handed out to the batter and pitcher who had the highest PAR for the month.  I will also continue to use these articles to chronicle the winners of the weekly honors as well.  Here are the top players from the first month of the 2017 season.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Nomar Mazara, Mavericks
    Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – Marcell Ozuna, Naturals
    Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Ryan Zimmerman, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope
    Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – James Paxton, Naturals
    Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Max Scherzer, Kings
    Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners

    As the above names indicate, April was a good month for the Nationals and players looking for a bounce-back after disappointing seasons a year ago.  Harper, Zimmerman and Keuchel were among some of the most disappointing players in the league last year, compared to their varying expectations.  So far, so good in 2017.  Here are the monthly award winners for April:

    Batter of the Month:

    Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    .391 AVG, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB, 3.31 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
    1.21 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.83 PAR

    For the second consecutive season, Bryce Harper has won the April Batter of the Month award.  Of course, last year, things started to go off the rails for Harper soon after the calendar turned to May.  But there are plenty of reasons to think that won’t happen again this year.  For one thing, he looks healthier.  Also, his April was even better this year than last.  He is easily leading the league in runs scored and is right near the top in AVG, HR and RBI as well.  I didn’t run the numbers to confirm it, but I believe this honor would have actually gone to Harper’s Nationals teammate Ryan Zimmerman had he been on the Demigods roster right from Opening Day.  Despite spending a week as a free agent, Zimmerman still came in second in the league in PAR for April.  Another Demigod, Freddie Freeman was third.

    April was a very encouraging month from Dallas Keuchel.  He currently leads the league in wins and is third in both ERA and WHIP.  If he has returned to 2015 form, the Moonshiners should be in good shape.  Keuchel won this monthly honor fairly easily, but three other pitchers had outstanding months as well.  Two not very surprising names:  Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale, and one not so expected:  James Paxton.  Unfortunately, Paxton’s hot start was tempered a bit as he was placed on the DL yesterday.

    One last note.  I knew this day was coming, but it appears Getty now has ads embedded in their images.  It is annoying, but I think I’m going to continue to use them anyway as I’m not aware of another similar free/legal source for baseball photos.

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part IV


    Everybody wants to be first… except when it comes to first place in the DTBL season preview series.  In all the years I’ve been doing these projections, no team that has been tabbed as the preseason favorite has ever actually gone on to win the league championship.  On top of that, no team has repeated as DTBL champions since the Darkhorses won a share of their fourth consecutive title back in 2010.  So that’s two trends the Kings will need to buck this season.  While they have received top billing in these projections, it is by the thinnest of margins over the Choppers and not far ahead of the Mavericks and other as well.  Since we are now in day three of the 2017 MLB season, it is time to start focusing on the games at hand.  So here are the final two team previews, for the teams expected to finish at the top of the standings.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 4th (4th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (2nd-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins – 4th (1st)
    • Saves – 1st (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Points – 2nd (3rd)

    Summary:

    Quietly, the Choppers have finished in the top four in the league for four straight seasons.  However, last season was the first time that they were truly in a pennant race in 15 years.  Finishing 2 1/2 points out was their closest margin of defeat since winning their last title in 1999.  This year, they would like to take the final step and win the whole thing.  It would be no surprise if they did just that.  If it weren’t for the Mavericks, we’d be gushing with superlatives for the Choppers pitching staff.  They finished just 1/2 point behind the Mavs in pitching points last season and are only projected to be two points behind them this year.  Chris Sale and Jon Lester will be joined by Danny Duffy to create a dynamic trio of southpaws at the top of the rotation.  Righties Danny Salazar and Masahiro Tanaka aren’t too shabby either.  They are a pretty good bet to lead the league in saves with four very good closers who all have decent job security at the moment (Craig Kimbrel, Ken Giles, A.J. Ramos and Kelvin Herrera).  The Choppers will probably need to beat these batting projections to win the title, however.  It is worth noting though that they are hurt a bit in these numbers by carrying three catchers on their roster, one of whom won’t play until later this summer (Wilson Ramos).  In the draft, they added several proven veterans to their existing cast with the likes of Dustin Pedroia (a re-acquisition), Carlos Gomez and Troy Tulowitzki.  The core of the offense remains Anthony Rizzo, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and the defending home run champion, Mark Trumbo.  This is a team loaded with proven hitters.  Can they deliver one more time?  If so, the Choppers have an excellent shot at ending their 18 year championship drought.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (2nd)
    • Wins – 8th (4th-T)
    • Saves – 3rd (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (3rd)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    The Kings have proven to be a hard team to project in recent years, in part because the previous season never seems to have any bearing on what will happen next.  The Kings past four finishes:  1st, 6th, 10th, 1st.  So predicting them to finish in the same spot two consecutive years seems like a losing bet.  Yet here we are.  Which Kings offense will we see in 2017?  The one that dominated the league through the All-Star break a year ago, or the one that completely fell apart down the stretch and nearly cost them the title?  The projections lean more towards the former.  They made some key moves to fill the one obvious weakness on offense:  corner infield.  They traded Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for Kyle Seager and used draft picks on Ryon Healy and Victor Martinez.  Reigning MVP Mookie Betts is the main man in a very good outfield that should be able to overcome the loss of Polanco with the return to health by A.J. Pollock.  First round pick David Dahl will join his two Rockies teammates, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez, in the Kings outfield as well, once all are healthy.  Robinson Cano, Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz make up a pretty strong middle infield.  A Kings repeat will likely come down to the pitching staff.  Last year, it was basically a two man show with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  They hope for great years from that duo again, but would like to get more from Marcus Stroman and Jeff Samardzija as well.  The key man in the rotation may be second round pick Lance McCullers, who has put up solid numbers early in his career, but has not been able to stay healthy.  The bullpen features four closers, but only the currently suspended Jeurys Familia would be considered above average.  Repeating their first place finish in saves seems unlikely.  The Kings certainly have the pieces in place to win the championship again this year, but their recent lack of consistency makes them anything but a safe bet.

    Posted below are the full projected standings.  These numbers point to an extremely tight race, particularly at the top of the standings.  It would be very easy to make a case for any of the top five teams to win the title, and even beyond that, there are reasons for hope.  It should be an extremely entertaining season.  So, to paraphrase Hawk Harrelson, it is time to sit back, relax and strap it down.  The 2017 DTBL season is upon us!

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part III


    As I’m sitting here writing, the first official game of the 2017 season just ended with the Rays beating the Yankees.  And now the second game, featuring the Giants and Diamondbacks, is underway.  So, welcome to the 2017 season!  We still have four more teams to cover in our season preview series, however.  In this edition, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish in third and fourth places.  The teams that remain have all been regulars near the top of the standings in recent seasons, so there aren’t any big surprises here.  The pair of teams covered in this particular article were probably both slightly disappointed by their place of finish from 2016, but both will be serious contenders this season.  These teams are projected to finish within seven points of the top placed squad.  Here is a preview of the 2017 Naturals and Mavericks.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 7th (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (7th)
    • Wins – 5th (3rd)
    • Saves – 4th (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
    • Total Points – 4th (6th)

    Summary:

    Believe it or not, the Naturals are the only team projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  So a strong argument could be made that this is the most balanced team in the league.  They have clearly improved an offense that was very disappointing a year ago.  They used their first three draft picks on exciting young infielders:  Yoan Moncada, Dansby Swanson and Jose Peraza.  Moncada is the big name of that trio, but the other two figure to be much more important pieces for this season.  Add those guys to an existing foundation of Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Nolan Arenado and you’ve got yourself quite the infield.  The outfield isn’t bad either with Trea Turner, Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton.  It would be hard to imagine the Naturals finishing in the bottom half in batting points again this year.  The pitching staff is pretty interesting as well.  It’s essentially the same core as last year, with Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco as the aces.  David Price’s health is certainly a major concern at the moment, however.  The saves projection may be a tad light because it doesn’t include free agent signing Blake Treinen.  I’m not sure how the Naturals wound up getting him being fifth in free agent priority, but they aren’t going to complain.  They don’t have a standout closer, but they ought to be able to rack up a bunch of saves with the five closers currently on the roster.  After two disappointing seasons in sixth place, the Naturals definitely look like a title contender for this season.  They are possibly the most complete team in the league.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 8th (1st-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
    • Wins – 1st (6th)
    • Saves – 5th (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (1st)
    • Total Points – 3rd (4th)

    Summary:

    Another season, another year with the Mavericks having the best pitching staff in the league.  I could have just copied and pasted whatever I wrote in this section about the Mavericks pitchers last year, because this is almost literally the exact same staff.  The gist:  they are good.  They are projected to blow away the rest of the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.  Not surprising with a rotation led by Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg.  They even managed to reacquire a couple hurlers who they cut a couple months ago:  Matt Harvey and Taijuan Walker.  The newcomers to the rotation are Kenta Maeda and Sean Manaea, who may seem like unnecessary luxuries.  But keep in mind that one of the big reasons why the Mavericks were unable to win the championship last year is because they suffered injuries to almost all of the previously mentioned pitchers.  This year, they are loaded with depth in case that happens again.  The bullpen is borderline unfair.  Only two closers:  Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances are such reliable strikeout machines that they hold significant value as setup men.  It would be hard to imagine the Mavericks not regaining the top spot in the league in strikeouts.  There are questions on offense, however.  These projections don’t show a lot of promise beyond Mike Trout and Manny Machado.  The Mavericks don’t need a great offense to win this league, but they will need a couple other hitters to have breakout years.  Andrew Benintendi, Byron Buxton, Addison Russell, Nomar Mazara and Tim Anderson are all candidates to do just that.  No matter what happens with the bats, this will be a championship contender on the strength of the league’s best pitching staff.

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part II


    Part two of the 2017 DTBL season preview will examine three teams who are projected to finish near the middle of the standings.  This would be a major change from last year for all three squads.  Two of them would view this as a positive move in the right direction while the other would consider this to be a major disappointment after nearly winning the championship a year ago.  I should mention that the projected league standings shows very little separation among these three teams in particular, but really the entire projected top seven finishers.  You can even throw in the Moonshiners and have eight teams who are prognosticated to be within 20 points of first place.  So it wouldn’t take a whole lot of weird stuff to happen for any of these teams to win the league.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth through seventh place.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
    • Home Runs – 5th (1st-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
    • Wins – 7th (2nd)
    • Saves – 9th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 5th (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (4th)
    • Total Points – 7th (2nd)

    Summary:

    In the Darkhorses preview, I said that I thought their projected fall from 5th to 9th was the biggest surprise we’d see.  Well, here we have the Demigods falling even one spot further.  But this one is less surprising, in my opinion.  You simply can’t replace one of the best pitchers in the game, which is the obstacle the Demigods must overcome after the passing of Jose Fernandez.  The weakened pitching prognostication makes sense.  Attempting to replace Fernandez will be Aaron Nola and Matt Shoemaker.  Nice pitchers, but not the same.  Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto will remain the true aces of the staff.  This is still an above average rotation.  However, it doesn’t appear to be elite.  The bullpen remains one of the league’s worst with a pair of closers who don’t have great job security (Tony Watson and Jeanmar Gomez).  What is more troubling about these projections is the offensive drop-off.  But the Demigods remain a balanced hitting team with solid players in every slot.  Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor are the stars.  A key newcomer to keep an eye on is Greg Bird.  If he continues his hot spring training into the regular season, there is no reason to think the Demigods couldn’t be near the top of the league in the power categories again this year.  I’m sure the Demigods have much higher expectations for this season than this.  There are plenty of reasons to believe they can make a run at that elusive first championship again this year.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (9th)
    • Wins – 6th (7th)
    • Saves – 7th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 6th (10th)

    Summary:

    Here we have the most positively surprising projection.  The numbers show potential for major improvement from the Cougars, who finished in last place in 2016.  The improvement is especially impressive on the pitching side.  Madison Bumgarner leads the way, of course, but a major bounce-back season from Chris Archer seems probable.  Three interesting newcomers join the rotation too:  the ageless Rich Hill, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy the past couple years, Jameson Taillon and Jerad Eickhoff.  This rotation has a little bit of everything.  The bullpen is respectable as well, with Cody Allen, Alex Colome and David Robertson.  In order to see significant improvement from the Cougars this year, the bats will need to take a huge step forward.  First overall draft pick Trevor Story should help in that regard.  He and Kris Bryant form quite a duo on the left side of the Cougars infield.  Underrated Charlie Blackmon leads the outfield.  I think it is safe to project the Cougars to soar past their league worst home run total from last season.  While it has been painful for the Cougars finishing near the bottom of the standings the past three years, it has allowed them to restock the lineup with high draft picks (Bryant, Story and Jose Abreu). Perhaps this is the year those assets start paying off.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (8th)
    • Wins – 3rd (9th)
    • Saves – 6th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 5th (9th)

    Summary:

    Here we have another projection that shows a massive improvement over last season.  But unlike the Cougars, this one isn’t particularly surprising.  Last season was essentially a write-off for the Jackalope.  The core of the team that won the championship two seasons ago remains, particularly on the batting side where they are still one of the best hitting teams in the league, despite what happened a year ago.  Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Donaldson are still two of the best players in the game.  Goldschmidt had the quietest 20/30 season I think I’ve ever seen.  32 steals out of a first baseman is insane.  New to the lineup is Gary Sanchez, who should give the Jackalope a huge edge over most teams at the catching position.  Perhaps the most important player for this team this year will be Giancarlo Stanton.  If he has a healthy, productive season, the Jackalope will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  The pitching staff does not appear to be top notch, however.  Jake Arrieta returned to being somewhat human a year ago, but still an elite pitcher.  Gerrit Cole figures to be healthier and more productive in ’17.  Tanner Roark and A.J. Happ give the Jackalope two of the more underrated pitchers in the game.  The bullpen features just two closers, but they are among the best in the league:  Wade Davis and Mark Melancon.  An improvement over last season seems like a forgone conclusion for the Jackalope.  But will they be a championship contender?  The talent is there.

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part I


    We are just days away from the start of the 25th DTBL season.  A quarter century doing this.  I guess that means we’re getting old.  Anyway, there will be time for nostalgia later.  For now, it is time to start looking at what we might see in this upcoming season.  Last season ended with the Kings winning the championship by just about the narrowest margin imaginable.  The Demigods came painfully close to their first title while the Choppers and Mavericks were also in the race in the closing days of the season.  It seems quite possible that we could have a thrilling finish again this year as a whole bunch of teams figure to be in contention.  Which teams have the early edge?  As has become custom, I have compiled projected stats for all the players and teams in the league and have used those numbers to create projected standings.

    I have made a small change to these projections from previous years.  But first, please check out this post from four years ago for a refresher on how these projections are created.  Here is what has changed for 2017.  Instead of simply using ZiPS projections (and Steamer for saves), I have decided to use FanGraphs’ Depth Charts Projections.  These projections combine ZiPS and Steamer and then are adjusted by FanGraphs staffers based on expected playing time.  I decided this set of numbers would be preferable to simply using ZiPS for a couple reasons.  First, more input is generally better than less, so two separate systems are being used to create these numbers.  Second, the playing time adjustments make sense to more accurately determine how much of an impact a player is likely to have this season.  It is worth noting that this change will hurt players who figure to spend a chunk of the season in the minors, like Yoan Moncada, for example.  Moncada’s Depth Charts projection is for 266 plate appearances whereas ZiPS has him at 650.  There is virtually no chance Moncada will have 650 plate appearances this year.  So I think Depth Charts paints a more accurate picture, but you are free to disagree.  One last thing to note is that some of these playing time projections have changed as spring training has progressed.  The numbers I am using were taken from just days before the start of the draft.  So that is something to consider as well.

    As we begin to dive into these team previews, keep in mind that these projections are nice, but almost certainly won’t come close to predicting the actual results of the 2017 season.  Last year’s projections had the Kings finishing sixth and the Jackalope repeating as champions.  That didn’t exactly happen.  On the other hand, the projections did quite accurately predict that the Demigods and Choppers would be serious title contenders.  So anyway, many grains of salt should be taken when digesting this information.  I do believe it is an interesting way to preview the season without making any enemies by posting my personal predictions.

    Without further ado, let’s get to the projections.  Today, I will preview the teams projected to finish in the bottom three spots in the standings.  These projections are especially harsh on the last place squad, but show room for improvement for the other two teams as well.

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
    • Wins – 10th (10th)
    • Saves – 8th (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
    • Total Points – 10th (8th)

    Summary:

    The above numbers aren’t pretty, but one potential reason for optimism is that the Gators have easily exceeded offensive projections the past two years, so there may be something these systems don’t like about their hitters.  They are clearly a speed first team, but they have a bunch of really good power hitters as well.  Wil Myers and Jean Segura were the breakout stars last year.  Corey Seager figures to take another step towards superstar status this season.  Jose Ramirez is the top offensive newcomer and should fit in nicely as an outstanding hitter who can run too.  I’m definitely taking the over on the batting projection.  Pitching, on the other hand, has been the Gators’ sore spot for a while now.  They do not have a truly dominant ace, although Jose Quintana could be one if he played for a different MLB team.  If he were to get traded by the White Sox, that could be a huge gain for the Gators.  Aaron Sanchez was tabbed with the third pick in the draft, so they are obviously counting on him to carry a heavy load.  Jharel Cotton is a very intriguing addition to the rotation too.  The bullpen features arguably the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton.  However, he is currently the only guy in the pen expected to open the season as a closer.  It will require vastly exceeding these projections for the Gators to put an end to their six year run in the bottom three of the standings.  Interestingly enough though, the only time they have ever finished in last place was the very first year of this league, 1993, when there were only five teams.  Can they avoid last place once again?

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (4th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (6th)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 10th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (7th)
    • Total Points – 9th (5th)

    Summary:

    This feels like the weirdest projection we will see in this series, by far.  Last year, the Darkhorses finished a respectable fifth place and had the best offense in the league.  So how did they fall all the way to 9th here?  I can’t really answer that.  I even double-checked the numbers to make sure I didn’t screw up something.  I like this team a lot, especially the bats.  Bryce Harper is close to a lock to improve on his pedestrian numbers from last season.  Maybe a step back from Daniel Murphy is to be expected, but newcomer Alex Bregman should easily make up for that.  Christian Yelich and George Springer are also on the verge of greatness in my opinion, and interestingly enough, both will be moving to full time gigs in center field this year.  There is a lot to like about the Darkhorses’ offense.  The pitching staff is a far bigger question mark.  Can Rick Porcello come close to matching his 2016 AL Cy Young campaign?  Will youngsters Julio Urias and Tyler Glasnow flourish in the big leagues this season?  There is significant upside in the rotation, but also a lot of unknowns.  The bullpen isn’t great, but could be much more interesting if Hector Neris is rightfully given the Phillies closer job early in the season.  They should easily exceed this saves projection.  Overall, I think the Darkhorses could be a contender, despite what these numbers show.  It will come down to how the young pitchers perform.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
    • Wins – 2nd (4th-T)
    • Saves – 2nd (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
    • Total Points – 8th (7th)

    Summary:

    Like the other two teams in this article, the Moonshiners have a recent trend of exceeding expectations.  Despite finishing 7th and being projected for 8th this year, there are actually a lot of positives here.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections at the end of the series, the Moonshiners are actually expected to improve by more than 10 standings points from last year.  It is just how they happened to shake out in comparison to other teams that pushed them down to 8th.  It is pretty clear that the offense should be better this year, despite trading away two of their key veteran hitters:  Kyle Seager and Ian Kinsler.  Instead, they now have some significant young potential in guys like Gregory Polanco and Jonathan Villar.  Villar alone will ensure they don’t finish anywhere near last in steals again.  And there is a ton of power in the lineup too with guys like Brian Dozier, Khris Davis, Miguel Sano, Evan Gattis and Brad Miller.  Batting average could be a problem, but they should see significant improvement in the other four hitting categories.  The pitching staff will still be led by veterans Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke along with last year’s breakout sensation Kyle Hendricks.  The Moonshiners seem to have a guy like that every year (Keuchel the year before), so who will it be this season?  Perhaps Jon Gray or Robbie Ray.  The bullpen is quite strong with the additions of the two best closers available in this draft:  Edwin Diaz and Seung Hwan Oh.  The Moonshiners have finished in 7th place four years in a row.  Despite the projection of 8th, these numbers actually show a very strong likelihood of them taking a positive step forward this season.

  • Story-book Beginning


    Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

    The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

    The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

    On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

    Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

    The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

    The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

    While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

    The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

    The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

    The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

    There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

    The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

    Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

    In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.