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  • Baseball’s Power Surge


    For most of the past six seasons, pitchers have been dominating hitters more than at any other point in league history.  ERA, WHIP, AVG and HR have all been at record lows in recent years while strikeouts have skyrocketed.  However, there are signs that some of that is starting to change.  Since we are almost exactly at the halfway mark of the season, it is pretty easy to look at the league stats and see what pace we are on in certain categories.  One category sticks out in a big way:  home runs.  Through Friday, there have been exactly 1,500 home runs hit in the DTBL this season.  So we are on pace to reach approximately 3,000 homers for the season, a mark which has not been reached since 2004.  The pace in other offensive categories isn’t as dramatically different, but it still seems likely that 2016 will be the best offensive season since at least 2012 and possible a lot further back than that.

    Home runs are way up.  RBI and runs are up slightly.  But interestingly, batting average and WHIP are right in line with recent seasons and strikeouts continue to be at all time highs.  So what does this mean?  It appears to me that whatever offensive resurgence that is currently occurring in baseball is almost exclusively the result of the increase in home runs.  Looking outside of the DTBL to MLB as a whole, the current home run per team, per game rate is 1.15.  This is a huge increase over 1.01 from last season, and if it holds up, would be the highest season mark since 2000.  I’m not going to offer any theories for the increase in home runs.  But the affects have been dramatic.

    So the 2016 season is basically half over.  The Kings continue to lead, but they did not have a very good June.  The Demigods have had two great months in a row and are now just four points out of first.  The Mavericks are also in close striking distance, but are currently dealing with a whole host of injuries, most notably Clayton Kershaw, but several other key players as well.  The Darkhorses were probably the team that had the best month, moving into the top half of the standings.  Here are the award winners for June 2016.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) – Mookie Betts, Kings
    Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Xander Bogaerts, Darkhorses
    Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope
    Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) – Jose Fernandez, Demigods
    Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Jon Lester, Choppers
    Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Julio Teheran, Darkhorses
    Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) – Chris Sale, Choppers

    It was a good month for somewhat recent high draft picks.  With the exception of Lester and Sale, every player who earned a weekly honor in June was a first or second round pick in the ’14 or ’15 drafts.  All of the players above had excellent months, but interestingly, the monthly award winners are not among them.  Here are your monthly award winners for June 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Wil Myers, Gators
    .327 AVG, 11 HR, 33 RBI, 25 R, 5 SB, 3.47 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings
    1.96 ERA, 0.726 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 58 K, 3.81 PAR

    Wil Myers was once considered the top prospect in baseball by many.  The Gators bought into that potential, making him the second pick in the 2014 draft.  However, until this past month, his career had been underwhelming at best.  He’s on his third MLB team and now has a new position.  But it is quite possible that June was the beginning of him reaching that superstar potential.  He led the league in HR and RBI in June.  His 11 homers were more than he hit in any full season in his DTBL career to date.  The 3.47 PAR he accumulated in the month accounts for about 85% of his career total.  This was a fairly comfortable win for Myers, but Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones were his closest competition.

    On the other side, dominating months are nothing new for Max Scherzer.  He won this same award last May and has been in the running many other months as well.  In June, his numbers were impressive across the board, but especially in strikeouts (note:  his record tying 20 strikeout game was actually in May).  He struck out at least 10 in five of his six starts in June and the 58 for the month were nine more than any other pitcher.  He now leads the league in that category, obviously helped by Clayton Kershaw’s trip to the DL.  Scherzer did not win this honor easily.  Jon Lester was just a couple tenths of a point behind him.  Corey Kluber finished third.

  • Mavericks Stars Dominate May


    I’ve decided to make a slight alteration to my monthly awards posts.  Since those have become pretty much the only articles I ever write anymore, I’m going to make them a little more comprehensive, reviewing the league as a whole a little more and focusing less on the two players who won the monthly awards.  The exact contents of the monthly articles won’t be consistent, other than listing the weekly and monthly award winners.  Sometimes I’ll recap the month and take a temperature of the league title race.  But other times I may have a specific topic of interest to write about.  This month, it will be pretty basic:  a brief rundown of all ten teams at the 1/3 mark of the season.

    The story of the year so far in the DTBL has to be the Kings attempt to go from worst to first.  They’ve held the top spot in the standings for a couple weeks now and even had a double digit lead at one point.  Last year was a bit of an aberration from the usually strong Kings, but I’m not sure anyone saw this coming.  The offense has been the best in the league, but the pitching staff has been the huge surprise.  What looked like a debilitating weakness, their staff is actually above average so far.  Jeff Samardzija and Aaron Nola have been especially key additions.

    The Kings have plenty of company near the top of the league though.  Unsurprisingly, the Mavericks have the best pitching staff in the league.  They are dominating everyone in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, to the point where their staff would really need to fall apart for them not to bank those 30 points.  As you’ll see in a bit, May was an especially strong month for the Mavericks, led by their two biggest stars.  The three other teams in the top half of the standings are a little more balanced between hitting and pitching compared to the Kings and Mavericks.  The Choppers have had a really strong year on both sides of the ledger.  The Demigods may have been the best team in the league in May (I should probably put numbers to this at some point), thanks in no small part to the return of Jose Fernandez to the ranks of the elite pitchers in baseball.  Besides the Kings, the next most positively surprising team has to be the Gators who have been in striking distance of first place all season so far.  All of these five teams should feel pretty good about their current standing.

    On the other hand, the other five teams are surely disappointed with how things are going so far in 2016.  The Jackalope were due for regression after their magical 2015, but 25 points out of the lead through two months was certainly unexpected.  Some of it can be blamed on injuries to key players, but there are teams above them with even more injured guys.  Obviously, this team has the talent to get back into the race in a hurry.  The Darkhorses are having a great season with the bats, but their pitching staff has been woeful, currently sitting at just 10 points.  That will need to improve soon.  The Naturals, usually one of the best offensive teams in the league, have certainly not been that thus far.  Nolan Arenado is doing his part, but he could use some help.  The Moonshiners have had a rough go of it with the bats too, but their pitching staff has also taken some huge steps backwards, most notably Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke.  Now add the misery of Felix Hernandez landing on the DL.  Finally, not much has gone right for the Cougars in the first two months.  They have been entrenched in last place for several weeks now.

    Here are the weekly and monthly award winners for May 2016.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 5 (5/2 – 5/8) – Robinson Cano, Kings
    Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15) – Todd Frazier, Darkhorses
    Week 7 (5/16 – 5/22) – Mike Trout, Mavericks
    Week 8 (5/23 – 5/29) – Joe Mauer, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 5 (5/2 – 5/8) – Jose Quintana, Gators
    Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    Week 7 (5/16 – 5/22) – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
    Week 8 (5/23 – 5/29) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

    Week 6 exposed a flaw in my code for awarding the weekly honors.  For both batters and pitchers, I had to manually change it to the players listed above because my code had awarded two players who were just activated for the upcoming week and were not actually on the active roster for the week they would have won:  Jackie Bradley Jr. and Jose Fernandez.  Interestingly, both would have been strong contenders for the monthly awards too had they actually spent the entire month on active rosters.  But here are the two players who did win the awards for May 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Mike Trout, Mavericks
    .340 AVG, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 26 R, 5 SB, 2.86 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    0.91 ERA, 0.523 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 65 K, 5.69 PAR

    After a somewhat pedestrian first month, by his standards, Mike Trout was back to his usual form in May.  He did not lead the league in any single category, but was near the top in all five.  Perhaps most encouraging were the five stolen bases, which is the same number he stole in the final five months of 2015.  There were a whole bunch of players within striking distance of this honor, with Ben Zobrist and Mookie Betts being the two closest.  Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw lapped the field on the pitching side.  He is the first player (pitcher or batter) to surpass a 5.0 PAR in a month since I started tracking these monthly numbers last year.  All of his May numbers are insane, but especially the 65/2 K/BB ratio.  He had three more wins than walks in May!  Jose Fernandez actually had the second highest PAR for the month, but as I mentioned above, he was not on the active roster for all of that time, so runner-up honors go to Madison Bumgarner who would have had a strong case for this award with his May numbers in almost any other month.

     

  • Players of the Month: April


    Yes, I am continuing last year’s feature of naming a DTBL Batter and Pitcher of the Month following each month of the season.  Yes, we are more than a third of the way through May already.  No, I haven’t announced the April winners yet.  No, I don’t have a particularly good excuse for my tardiness.  Away we go…

    As a reminder, these Players of the Month selections are not subjective.  I am simply calculating each player’s PAR for the month and giving the awards to the batter and pitcher who led the league in that category.  I will also use these monthly posts to run down the list of players who won the weekly honors, which are also given to the players with the highest PAR during that week.

    Although the 2016 season is still quite young, it does seem fairly clear that we will not have a repeat of last season with one team running away from the competition right from the start.  April saw a bunch of teams swap the top spots in the standings.  At the end of the month, the top half of the standings looked like a bit of a flashback to the early years of the league more so than recent seasons.  The Choppers finished the month in first place, with the Gators and Kings in the mix as well.  The defending champion Jackalope appear to be quite strong again and the Mavericks are right there as usual.  As for individual player performances, April was dominated by a number of players.  Before we get to the best players of the month, here are the weekly award winners:

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars
    Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Welington Castillo, Gators
    Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) – Victor Martinez, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Chris Sale, Choppers
    Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Drew Smyly, Moonshiners
    Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

    There are some pretty surprising names on that list of hitters.  But the one of them who won the monthly award is not hard to identify.  Kershaw won half of the weekly pitching honors, but was edged out for the monthly award.  Here are the award winners for April 2016:

    Batter of the Month:

    Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    .286 AVG, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 16 R, 5 SB, 2.17 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Chris Sale, Choppers
    1.66 ERA, 0.684 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 32 K, 3.41 PAR

    Harper, the reigning NL MVP, picked up right where he left off last season.  He actually faded a bit in the final week of April and almost lost this honor as a result.  But his first three weeks were simply awesome.  He finished April tied for the league lead in RBI and one behind the leader in home runs.  His five steals were just one short of his full season total in 2015.  Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado also had great Aprils and I believe both passed Harper in PAR on the first day of May.

    Early in 2016, Chris Sale’s strikeouts are down a bit.  But the rest of his numbers are as good or better than ever.  He won every game he started in April and led the league in both wins and WHIP.  His numbers were nearly identical to his crosstown counterpart, Jake Arrieta.  But Sale gets the nod for this award by finishing with a PAR that was a couple hundredths of a point higher.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part IV


    The way the Jackalope dominated the DTBL in 2015, it is no surprise they are the favorites to win the league again this year.  But a repeat of their 19 point victory seems extremely unlikely.  The projections certainly don’t point to that.  Yes, the Jackalope are projected to win the league again, but with 10 fewer points and just a 2 1/2 point cushion over the second place squad.  That team would be the Thunder Choppers, who have generally not been highly regarded in these pre-season projections.  But after a couple straight fourth place finishes, they are a team that definitely looks ready to contend.  Although these two teams are expected to finish fairly close to each other, they are built much differently.  The Jackalope are very strong across the board, while the Choppers have an elite pitching staff with an average offense.  While other teams will surely be in the discussion this season, it will be very interesting to see if these two are able to live up to expectations.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two spots in the 2016 standings.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd-T (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 7th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
    • Wins – 1st (7th)
    • Saves – 1st (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Points – 2nd (4th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers finished a very respectable fourth place last year, but were not serious title contenders.  It was their third straight season in the top four, but in those years they never finished closer than nine points behind the champion.  So while their continued success is a positive, they certainly would like to be in the discussion for a league championship come September and hope to end their 17 year title drought.  For all the talk about the Mavericks pitching staff, it is the Choppers who actually top the pitching point projections.  They are expected to finish first or second in all five pitching categories.  And this is almost all on the shoulders of returning players.  They wound up keeping six starting pitchers and did not draft a single pitcher who is on their Opening Day roster.  That allowed them to solely focus on improving an offense that was one of the worst in the league last year.  Kyle Schwarber is the big name among the newcomers, but they brought in a bunch of solid veteran hitters as well.  For the offense to be above average, Schwarber and his Cubs teammate Anthony Rizzo will need to have great seasons.  But they probably don’t need to be much better than average with the sticks because their pitching staff is loaded.  Chris Sale is the number one guy, but they have five other very good starters:  Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Danny Salazar, Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka.  That is impressive depth.  The bullpen is strong as well, although I think the 2nd place projection in saves is slightly optimistic.  Craig Kimbrel is clearly their top bullpen guy.  This should be a very good year for the Choppers.  They may not be able to win it all, but they do appear to be the best bet to unseat the Jackalope.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 2nd (1st)
    • Saves – 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Points – 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    It woudn’t be much fun if the Jackalope were expected to blow away the rest of the league again this year, so nice to see just a 2 1/2 point margin.  But make no mistake, they are clearly the favorites to win the DTBL again this year.  And that smaller gap between them and the rest of the league is not a sign of this being a weaker Jackalope squad.  It is just hard to have everything go your way like it did for this team a year ago.  They are still projected to be a top three hitting and pitching team.  No other team can legitimately claim to be one of the league’s best on both sides.  It isn’t just the returning players who give the Jackalope such high hopes.  They were able to reinforce their squad with a couple interesting additions in the draft:  third baseman Maikel Franco and pitcher Raisel Iglesias.  But the most important players are the same guys who carried them a year ago.  Reigning league MVP Josh Donaldson left today’s game early, but hopefully it wasn’t anything serious.  Paul Goldschmidt also happens to be one of the best players in baseball.  And don’t forget that they didn’t even get full years out of top slugger Giancarlo Stanton and solid hitter Anthony Rendon.  So there are some reasons to believe they could be even better in 2016.  The pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.  Jake Arrieta was the steal of the draft a year ago.  Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole join him to make up the best non-Mavericks top three in the league.  There is very little drop-off in the bullpen either.  Wade Davis moves into a full time closer role and Mark Melancon led the league in saves last season.  The Jackalope will attempt to become the first team to successfully defend their title since the Darkhorses finished up their four-peat in 2010.  It would be pretty shocking if they aren’t in the hunt to do just that.

    Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, there is a pretty healthy gap between the two teams at each end of the standings and the other six in the middle. The Jackalope and Choppers appear to be the teams to beat with the Demigods clearly being the third choice. Meanwhile, the Gators and Moonshiners are going to need to significantly outperform these numbers in order to sniff the top of the standings. But for the most part, anything could happen. Should be another fun season. Good luck to all!

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part III


    We’re now into the third day of games of the 2016 baseball season.  What better time to overreact to small sample sizes?  I’ll try not to do that here.  Hopefully, I’ll be able to finish up the final article tomorrow evening.  In part three of our season preview, we’ll look at three teams that are projected to be above average this season, but just barely.  The numbers show these teams finishing well behind the top two.  But this is where the eventual champion Jackalope were slotted a year ago.  So it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more of these teams in the running for the title down the stretch.  All of these teams have championship aspirations after slightly disappointing 2015 seasons.  One of them is a recent champion while the other two have come very close in recent years and are looking to take the next step this season.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth, fourth and third places.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 5th (7th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
    • Wins – 4th (2nd-T)
    • Saves – 2nd (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
    • Total Points – 5th (6th)

    Summary:

    You know how everyone talks about the San Francisco Giants and #EvenYearMagic?  Well, they aren’t the only team who has won championships in each of the past three even year seasons (2010, 2012, 2014).  Those also happen to be years in which the Naturals have won DTBL titles.  Last year’s season preview correctly predicted that the Naturals would not come close to defending their title.  But it was a surprisingly mediocre offense that cost them, rather than the pitching staff which appeared to be their weakness.  This year’s projections show more of the same.  They still have one of the most imposing offensive lineups in the league.  Troy Tulowtizki is gone, but Miguel Cabrera, Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto remain.  Even though we just saw it last year, I have a hard time believing this is a below average offensive team.  The pitching staff looks very strong with Noah Syndergaard joining David Price and Carlos Carrasco at the top of the rotation.  And the bullpen will feature four closers to start the year.  Despite the modest prognostication, another even year championship certainly seems possible for the Naturals.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 8th-T (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
    • Wins – 5th (6th)
    • Saves – 8th (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Points – 4th (2nd)

    Summary:

    The past three years, the Mavericks have been projected to finish either first or second.  That’s basically how things have turned out too.  The Mavs have finished no worse than third the past four years.  But this season marks the tenth anniversary of their last title.  The perennial contender will likely resume that role again this season, although these projections are not quite as optimistic.  They still have the league’s best pitching staff, by far, even though they are not projected to lead the league in pitching points.  That’s only because of wins and saves, the former which is nearly impossible to predict.  They are a solid #1 in the other three pitching categories, giving them plenty of room for error.  Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg continue to be an enviable top three who all would be clear aces on most other teams.  The bullpen is borderline unfair with four of the best relievers in baseball, although Aroldis Chapman will miss time due to a suspension.  They won’t rack up saves since three of them play for the same team, but Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Kenley Jansen will basically assure the Mavericks of winning the strike out category.  The questions are all on offense.  These projections are not kind, but that is largely because they are depending on a ton of young players without proven track records along with several veterans who have had trouble staying healthy in recent years.  They are a pretty good bet to exceed the counting category projections assuming these guys stay on the field.  It won’t be the least bit surprising if the Mavericks are one of the best teams in the league again this year.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 8th-T (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
    • Wins – 8th (9th)
    • Saves – 10th (5th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Demigods were very close to winning their first championship in 2014 and entered last year with lofty expectations.  Unfortunately for them, their pitching staff was unable to maintain its dominance, causing them to finish a disappointing fifth.  This year, things could be setting up perfectly for them to make another run.  They should finally get a full year out of Jose Fernandez, who along with Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, certainly have the potential to be the best non-Mavericks rotation.  Remember, just two years ago, they led the league in pitching points.  This group could be just as strong.  However, the bullpen is not great.  Trevor Rosenthal is the only certain closer on the team.  So punting saves may be necessary.  With the bats, they look pretty strong as well.  First round pick Francisco Lindor joins a hitting roster that is very steady from 1 through 14.  Really, their offensive strength is their lack of weak spots.  Buster Posey, Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez are largely underrated superstars.  Perhaps expectations aren’t quite as high this year for the Demigods, but this is a very strong team.  They are by far the most balanced of any of the teams covered so far.  There is a bit of a gap between them and the top two in these projections, but they are also a safe third ahead of the rest of the pack.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part II


    Parts two and three of the 2016 DTBL season preview will cover six teams slated to finish in the middle of the pack with very little separation.  In particular, the teams projected to finish in fourth through eighth place are bunched within 4 1/2 points of each other.  So it wouldn’t take much for the three teams covered in this article to finish in the top half of the standings.  These teams are projected to finish safely ahead of the bottom two, but would need to significantly surpass these numbers to get into the title race.  There are signs of significant improvement over last year for two of these teams, while the third would be taking a huge step backwards if these prognostications were to come true.  Obviously, teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings have some weaknesses, but these three teams also have significant strengths that could carry them to higher places.  Here are the teams projected to finish in eighth, seventh and sixth places.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
    • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
    • Wins – 6th (2nd-T)
    • Saves – 9th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (7th)
    • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

    Summary:

    Okay, this is a pretty rough looking projection for a team that finished third last year.  But if you look closely at the numbers, the drop-off from a year ago is not that significant.  The 61.5 points they earned last year was more in line with a middle of the pack team most years.  But they are still slated to drop close to 10 points, which would make an eighth place finish pretty disappointing.  On the positive side, the offense looks very strong again.  They didn’t select a hitter until the fourth round of the draft, so this lineup is mostly the same as last year.  If Bryce Harper has another season like the last one, you can probably safely assume these team power projections are on the low side.  Todd Frazier, George Springer and Xander Bogaerts are three other players who seem primed for big years.  The concern is on the mound.  Last year, Jacob deGrom pretty much carried the rotation, but a pair of Carloses have been brought in to help:  Carlos Martinez and Carlos Rodon.  Those guys have huge upside, but modest projections in ERA and WHIP.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness at the moment with Brad Boxberger and Carson Smith hurt.  Jake McGee appears to be the only player on the roster who can be counted on for saves in April.  The Darkhorses absolutely have the talent to contend.  But we’ll have to see if they are able to outperform this iffy pitching forecast.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
    • Wins – 3rd (4th)
    • Saves – 5th (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 5th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
    • Total Points – 7th (9th)

    Summary:

    Although this projection only shows a two place jump, I think the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the league.  First of all, their ninth place finish was a little misleading due to the tightness of the race to the bottom.  They actually looked like one of the stronger teams in the league early last season.  But a late season collapse sent them spiraling to 9th.  For quite some time now, they have had a very solid pitching staff but have been waiting for the offense to catch up.  Well, that time appears to have arrived.  The Cougars are actually projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  But the closeness of these middle teams has them just seventh overall.  The offense is much improved.  Kris Bryant will provide an immediate power boost, joining forces with holdovers Chris Davis and Jose Abreu.  Charlie Blackmon and Michael Brantley are two very underrated players as well.  This should be the best offensive team the Cougars have fielded since 2010.  The pitching staff is largely the same as last year, led by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer.  But the potential for a big boost here would be getting a full season out of Adam Wainwright.  The bullpen looks pretty strong with Cody Allen and David Robertson, but Drew Storen losing the closer gig in Toronto isn’t helpful.  Overall, this is a very solid team.  I’m betting the over on seventh place.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (8th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd-T (7th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (6th)
    • Wins – 10th (10th)
    • Saves – 3rd (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
    • Total Points – 6th (10th)

    Summary:

    This entire section requires a huge asterisk after news hit last night that A.J. Pollock broke his elbow.  Pollock was easily the Kings best, most irreplaceable offensive player last year.  So these projections showing them leading the league in batting points seems highly unlikely.  Having said that, the Kings still have far more talent than most teams coming off a last place season.  The offense was actually pretty good in 2015, but they were torpedoed by an awful pitching staff.  It looks to be the same story heading into 2016.  Carlos Correa and David Peralta will add to a strong group of returning hitters including Mookie Betts, Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez.  If they are able to get bounce-back seasons out of Jay Bruce and Jonathan LuCroy, they definitely could have one of the best hitting teams in the league, even without Pollock.  The pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a huge problem.  It was basically Max Scherzer and a bunch of stiffs last year.  They are hoping Marcus Stroman can lend a hand and are hopeful for a bounce-back year from Jeff Samardzija.  The bullpen is a strength.  They will enter the season with four closers.  The Kings seem like a safe bet to improve on last year’s disaster.  But if they don’t get several pitchers to take their games to another level, another finish in the bottom half of the standings seems likely.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part I


    Welcome to the 2016 DTBL season!  Before things get started for real on Sunday, I’m going to kick off my annual season preview articles.  Last year, the Jackalope turned the season into a bit of a snoozer as they basically dominated the league from start to finish.  Surely, that won’t happen again this year, will it?  Which other teams can pose a serious threat to their title defense?  As has been the custom in recent years, I have compiled projected stats for all players currently on DTBL rosters and have used those to create a projection of the league standings.

    Once again, I am using ZiPS as my source for 2016 stat projections for every statistical category except for saves, which I obtained from Steamer.  Please check out this post from three years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  I am using the stats for all 28 players who were on each team’s roster at the completion of the draft, even if they are not expected to contribute much this season.  However, the team totals are adjusted to assume a 14 hitter and 9 pitcher roster.  Again, check the link above to see exactly how I’m doing this.

    Before I get started, a quick look back at last year’s projections.  First, the Jackalope dominance was definitely not expected as they were slotted to finish sixth.  But some of the other forecasts were pretty solid, including the projection of an extremely bunched middle of the pack and disappointing seasons for the Kings, Gators and Moonshiners.  No doubt, this year’s projections won’t hit all the marks either, but I still think this provides some value in identifying pre-season strengths and weaknesses of each team.

    I will break this into four sections.  In the past, I’ve gone with three teams in the first two parts and two in the final two.  But I’m switching it up a bit this year.  Not to spoil the full standings, but there is a pretty clear delineation at both the top and bottom of the standings with a pair of teams sticking out on each end and the middle six picked to finish in an extremely tight group.  So I’m going to go 2-3-3-2 this year.  With that, here are the teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings in 2016.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
    • Wins – 7th (5th)
    • Saves – 6th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
    • Total Points – 10th (7th)

    Summary:

    At this time last year, the Moonshiners had just swung a couple huge trades to give their pitching staff a much needed boost.  Adding Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez certainly did improve their staff, but not nearly enough to make them a contender.  Meanwhile, their offense wasn’t great either as they limped to a seventh place finish.  Unfortunately, these projections show them taking a huge step in the wrong direction this year, especially on the hitting side.  They are not projected to finish higher than fifth in any category and are slotted dead last in three categories.  The problem, at least on offense, appears to be a lack of players who are expected to post monster numbers.  There are some reasons for optimism though.  Their first two draft picks, Miguel Sano and Michael Conforto, have enormous upside and could easily become their best two offensive players immediately.  On the pitching side, it is hard to imagine a staff led by Greinke, Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel not being at least average.  Also, while the bullpen doesn’t have any huge names, they do currently have four guys slated to be closers.  The  Moonshiners will need to vastly exceed these projections to have a good season, but last place seems a little overly pessimistic for a franchise that has NEVER finished worse than seventh.

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 4th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 7th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 9th (8th)

    Summary:

    So the order is switched, but the bottom two of these projections are the same as a year ago.  Despite finishing in eighth place in 2015, the Gators made significant strides, particularly with their bats.  This year, the goal would seem to be to improve the pitching staff.  Steven Matz joins a rotation that badly needs an ace.  These projections don’t show them making the necessary jump on the mound to move up the standings.  But this is familiar territory for the Gators, being projected near the bottom.  Their actual results last year were much better than even their place of finish would indicate.  And there are some positive signs in these projections too, including a big improvement in power.  If Yoenis Cespedes’ second half can carry into the new year, things will really be looking up.  Corey Seager hopes to anchor an improved infield.  Overall, there is a lot to like about the Gators roster.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff has too many question marks for them to project as a contender this year.  At the very least, the Gators aim to finish above the bottom three for the first time since 2010.

  • Elite Rookie Class Arrives


    One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

    Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

    The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

    Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

    For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

    With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

    We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

    The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

    We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!

  • 2015 PAR Update


    With the great East Coast snowstorm of 2016 having rolled through this past weekend, I found myself with some unexpected free time.  I took some of that time to complete a task that I should have done months ago.  I finally updated the 2015 PAR numbers to be derived from stats including those accumulated during the 2015 season.  As a quick reminder, PAR is built upon five years worth of league-wide data.  During the season, that data comes from the five previously completed seasons.  However, when a season ends, I adjust the numbers to use the recently completed season in place of the numbers from five years prior.  So up until now, the ’15 PAR totals were based on data from 2010-2014.  I have now replaced 2010 with 2015 stats.  Normally, this post-season adjustment has minimal impact on the numbers and certainly wouldn’t be worth its own blog post.  However, there were some interesting outcomes this time around, so I’m going to take this opportunity to chronicle them.

    First, this update caused a slight uptick in cumulative offensive PAR and a similar downswing for pitchers.  Across the league, these adjustments caused the league Batting PAR to increase to 201, up approximately 12 points, while pitchers dropped 11 points to 264.  In a perfect world, both totals would be right around 225, which is the number of points above last place that can be gained in all of the batting and pitching categories.  But as we’ve seen in almost all of the PAR numbers I’ve calculated to date, batters have fallen short of this total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  This is because there has been a consistent decline in offensive numbers over the time period I have examined, with pitchers going the opposite direction.  But we’re finally getting closer to the ideal league totals since the five year window is now almost exclusively seasons in which pitchers dominated.  The reason for the adjusted increase in offense and decline in pitching is because 2015 replaced a 2010 season that was far better for pitchers, meaning the hurdle for earning points above replacement for hitters has gone down while pitchers have a higher obstacle to exceed.

    On an individual player basis, most hitters saw their PAR increase slightly while pitchers dropped a bit.  This was pretty consistent across the board, but a few noticeable changes are worth mentioning.  First, the MVP race became extremely interesting in part because Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt had nearly identical PAR totals for the Jackalope.  Prior to the update, both players had matching 8.45 PAR, with an ever so slight edge to Goldschmidt when expanding it to the third decimal place.  But now, Donaldson has passed Goldschmidt as the Batting PAR champion, 9.35 to 9.29.  The reason why Donaldson received more of a boost is because stolen bases became a little less valuable in the revised formula, which dinged Goldschmidt a bit.  Of course, league members had already deemed Donaldson more valuable anyway, having named him the league’s MVP this season.  There were a few place swaps down the Batting PAR leaderboard as well, but the top two switch was the most noteworthy.

    On the pitching side, the changes were more consistent.  All of the top pitchers saw their numbers go down by just about the same amount, so there were no changes to the Pitching PAR top 10.  But there was an interesting change when looking at the historical numbers.  Prior to this update, Jake Arrieta’s 16.32 PAR was the highest single season mark in recorded PAR history (2010 to present), just barely edging Justin Verlander’s 16.31 in 2011.  However, Arrieta’s official PAR for 2015 has now dropped to 15.64, which drops him behind Verlander and 2014 Clayton Kershaw.  It is difficult to compare players from different seasons, but PAR is one tool to do so.  Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in league history, no matter how you look at it though.  Kershaw and Zack Greinke remain solidly in the top 10 single season Pitching PAR (since ’10) with their ’15 seasons as well.

    Now I will start working on calculating PAR numbers for more past seasons.  2009 will be up next, with a goal of completing every year since 2005 before the start of the upcoming season.  Stay tuned for that.

  • Donaldson Completes Jackalope Sweep


    It seems like 85% of the content I have written for this site this year has focused on the Jackalope. They were the talk of the league in March with their blockbuster trades. Then came a thoroughly dominating championship season in which they picked up individual player honors in almost every month. And now in awards season, they have already claimed both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, thanks to Jake Arrieta. Which brings us to the Most Valuable Player award, an honor which the Jackalope figured to have not one, but two top candidates. Sure enough, those two players finished first and second in the vote. The award goes to one of the players they acquired in that pre-season shake-up. Josh Donaldson is the 2015 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Donaldson and his Jackalope teammate Paul Goldschmidt finished in a virtual tie atop the Batting PAR leaderboard. So it comes as no surprise that those two led the way in the MVP vote as well. The third baseman, Donaldson, had the edge in home runs, RBI and runs while Goldschmidt bested him in average and stolen bases. Donaldson led the league with 122 runs, came in second in RBI with 123 and finished fifth in home runs with 41. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top five of those three power categories. His .297 average wasn’t too shabby either.

    A breakout star last year in his DTBL rookie campaign, Donaldson proved that ’14 wasn’t a fluke. In fact, he significantly improved upon all of his numbers except stolen bases. The Moonshiners drafted him in the first round a year ago and he rewarded them with an All-Star season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year vote. He was the key piece moving to the Jackalope in a deal that sent elite pitcher Felix Hernandez to the Moonshiners. The full deal was Donaldson and a fourth round pick for Hernandez and Ian Kennedy. Despite Hernandez having another terrific season, the first year edge clearly goes to the Jackalope in that swap. Donaldson helped lead the league’s best offense to an easy league championship. He was a key part in the team finishing in the top four of every offensive category.

    Goldschmidt had a very strong claim for this award as well, posting great numbers across the board (.321, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 103 R, 21 SB). As mentioned, the two Jackalope stars had virtually identical PAR numbers as well. In the end, it was probably Donaldson’s power edge that garnered him this award. The vote was relatively close, but Donaldson received a majority of the first place votes. He got six first place tallies, two seconds, a third and a fourth for 82 points. Goldschmidt had a pair of first place votes and four each for second and third. He came in second place with 68 points. NL MVP Bryce Harper also received strong consideration. The Darkhorses outfielder received two first place votes as well, but didn’t fair quite as well down ballot, and was left off one ballot completely. He finished with 55 points. Next, Nolan Arenado made sure two of the top four spots would go to third baseman. The Naturals’ slugger came in fourth with 38 points. Those four were head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. The fifth place spot went to a guy who actually didn’t finish higher than fifth on any ballot, but got five votes in that #5 spot. That player is the defending MVP, Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout. Trout has now finished in the top five of the MVP vote in all four of his DTBL seasons.

    Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

    With that, the Jackalope have swept all three of the major post-season awards. I don’t have complete records of the award winners from the league’s first decade to easily reference, but I believe this is the first time a team has won all three awards in the same season. Fitting, considering the 2015 Jackalope were unquestionably one of the best teams in league history.

    So that’s it for a while. I have several plans for the winter, but I’ll keep them to myself for now so that I don’t set any expectations that I will surely fail to live up to. One certainty is that I will continue to retroactively calculate PAR numbers for past seasons. Hopefully, I’ll have numbers going back to at least a decade ago before next season begins.

    Happy Thanksgiving!