DTBL News

Blog

  • Best of the Rest

    Choppers relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel

    Through most of the 2013 DTBL season, there was a fairly obvious line of demarcation between the contenders and the also-rans.  Four teams had legitimate title aspirations most of the season, while the other six were left to build for the future.  The Mavericks, Choppers and Naturals were not able to win the league, but to varying degrees, 2013 was a good season for them.

    For the second consecutive year, the Mavericks missed winning the league championship by a single point.  And the similarities between 2012 and 2013 don’t end there for the Mavericks.  Just like 2012, they were the best team in the league in the second half of the season and possibly would have won both years if the season was a week longer.  They erased the Kings double digit lead and briefly took over first place at the end of August.  But injuries to key players down the stretch eventually did them in.  A couple of those injuries could have a lingering effect on their 2014 campaign as well.  They had to finish the season without the services of three of their best players:  Matt Harvey, Manny Machado and Edwin Encarnacion.  Since the season ended, the news hasn’t gotten any better regarding Harvey and Machado.  Harvey eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery and probably will not pitch next year.  Machado underwent knee surgery that may not have him back in time for Opening Day.  Encarnacion’s injury was less serious, but couldn’t have come at a worse time.  He led the Mavericks in home runs and, at the time of the injury, was also the club leader in RBI.

    Although they didn’t win the title, the 2013 Mavericks can lay claim to a couple impressive distinctions, arguably including the greatest pitching staff in league history.  They broke the league record for lowest team ERA and WHIP.  Their 2.63 club ERA smashed the record previously held by the 2011 Jackalope (2.83).  In WHIP, they also bested the ’11 Jackalope mark 1.05 to 1.12.  They were well on their way to breaking the strikeout record as well before the Harvey injury, but wound up falling nine strikeouts short of the total by the 2007 Mavericks.  It is hard to imagine another team besting those team ERA and WHIP totals anytime soon.  Harvey, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg helped make up one of the most dominating rotations ever assembled.  Kershaw and Harvey finished 1-2 in both ERA and WHIP.  The offense wound up being a bit of a disappointment though, and ultimately was the reason they didn’t win the league.  They will look to improve that group next year, particularly since it seems unlikely they will be able to duplicate this pitching performance.

    Besides the Kings, the Choppers were probably the team most pleased with their 2013 season.  They finished the season in third place, a height in which they had not reached since 2001.  In fact, this is the first time they have finished in the top half of the standings since 2006.  This was no fluke.  They made significant improvements to their offense, and especially their pitching, to finish just nine points out of first place.

    The Choppers led the league in home runs, RBI and saves.  The saves title was extremely interesting since they spent a good portion of the year with a starting pitcher occupying one of their bullpen slots (Alexi Ogando).  But Craig Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera more than made up for that.  Their rotation was sneaky good as well.  None of these guys got serious Cy Young hype, but Chris Sale, C.J. Wilson, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Jarrod Parker all had outstanding seasons.  The staff accumulated 37 pitching points, only exceeded by the record breaking Mavericks.  The Choppers offense wasn’t too shabby either.  Finishing on top of the league in HR and RBI was a true team effort.  Seven different Choppers hit at least 20 home runs while eight guys had 70+ RBI.  Pedro Alvarez led the team in both categories (36, 100), and he was nearly matched by Mark Trumbo (34, 100).  Also, Jayson Werth was one of the best hitters in the league in the second half of the season.  This was a huge stepping stone season for the Choppers.  They should enter 2014 as one of the top title contenders.

    It is almost always a disappointment for a defending champion when they are unable to successfully defend that title.  So the Naturals probably won’t remember this season fondly.  However, this year’s squad really wasn’t that much worse than the team that won it all in dramatic fashion a year ago.  In 2012, the Naturals won the league with 70.5 points.  This year, they only dropped a handful of points down to 66, but that put them in a distant fourth place.  Their offense actually earned them more points than a year ago.  But because of the emergence of a few other teams’ pitching staffs, the Naturals took a bit of a dive.

    Just like last year, the Naturals offense was carried by strong MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera led the league in batting average and finished second behind Chris Davis in both home runs and runs batted in.  Interestingly enough, it was batting average that kept him from winning the DTBL triple crown a year ago, a feat he did accomplish in the American League in ’12.  Andrew McCutchen further entrenched himself as one of the game’s best hitters this year too.  But besides those two players, the Naturals lacked that third dominating player they needed to make a serious title run.  As mentioned, the pitching staff took a hit this year.  Matt Cain was the biggest disappointment.  Mid-season injuries to Zack Greinke and David Price proved costly as well.  The Naturals most consistent pitcher from start to finish this year was the under-appreciated Jordan Zimmermann who finished second in the league with 19 wins.  The Naturals don’t need to do much to return to the top next year.  Perhaps they will focus on building depth in case they face another injury plagued season in 2014.

    The final part of my 2013 season review will examine the six teams who were not serious title contenders this year.  Look for that sometime late next week.  I hope you have been enjoying these baseball playoffs.  It has been one of the most exciting Octobers I can recall, with nearly every game coming down to the final pitches.  Let’s hope for more of the same the next couple weeks!

  • Kings Take the Fifth

    Kings third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and shortstop Ian Desmond

    For the third time in four years, the league championship was determined by one point or fewer.  Despite a second half fade which saw a double digit lead evaporate, the Kings held on for dear life and edged out the Mavericks by a single point.  Kevin’s Kings are the 2013 Dream Team Baseball League champions.

    With their fifth championship, the Kings can now claim more titles than any other franchise.  But this one was a long time coming.  After winning four straight titles from 2000 through 2003, the Kings have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride, bottoming out in last place in 2009.  But in the years since then, they have built a solid foundation which eventually led to this title.  A year ago, they came up just short, missing the title by the same one point margin that they won by this year.  But in the year of the tenth anniversary of their last title, the Kings are champions once again.

    For a good portion of the season, it appeared the Kings might win the league running away.  They held a double digit point lead for a good portion of the summer.  Their starting pitching was awesome in the first half, and the offense was even better.  The Kings had a league high eight players on the All-Star team (two more than any other team).  But their fortunes changed significantly in late July, and especially August.  Part of this was due to the finger injury suffered by their best all around player, Carlos Gonzalez.  Gonzalez suffered the injury in early July and wound up missing a majority of the second half of the season.  The Kings actually coughed up their lead to the Mavericks for a couple days in the last week of August.  But fortunately for them, they caught a hot streak in early September to regain positive momentum.  However, in the final week or so, they started coughing up points with their struggling pitching staff and had to hold on for the one point victory.  Had the season been another week longer, this might be a completely different article.

    The Kings offense was the primary reason why they won the league.  They led the way with 43.5 batting points, which was 9.5 more than any other team earned.  They were a well rounded offensive squad, finishing in the top three in the league in all five categories.  In addition to Gonzalez’s first half contributions, the other top offensive performers were all Kings veterans:  Robinson Cano, Jay Bruce, Carlos Beltran, Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman.  Zimmerman’s contributions were especially important because his September surge carried an otherwise lackluster offense.  But the other mentioned players were solid all year.  The Kings also had a very impressive catching duo of Wilin Rosario and Jonathan LuCroy, giving them an edge on pretty much every other team at that position.  It was truly a team effort because not one Kings player came near the league lead in any offensive category.  Bruce (109 RBI) was the only player to finish in the top five of a category.

    Even though the offense was better than the pitching, the improvement of the Kings pitching staff was a major reason why they won the league.  Their offense was nearly identical to 2012, but the pitchers improved by nine points, finishing third in the league with 34.5 points.  The rotation was led by the Tigers trio of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez.  Verlander has been the Kings ace for several years, but this year he was a distant third behind his two Tigers teammates.  Scherzer is their top Cy Young candidate, leading the league with 21 wins, third in WHIP (0.97) and second in strike outs (240).  He was probably the best non-Mavericks pitcher in the league.  But Sanchez actually led the staff in ERA (2.59).  To complement those three, the Kings made a key mid-season signing with Ricky Nolasco just before he was traded to the Dodgers.  Nolasco chipped in seven key wins as the rest of the staff was struggling.  Jake Peavy was his usual solid self in the rotation too.  The bullpen turned into a bit of a disaster, finishing ninth in saves due to injuries to former closer J.J. Putz and mid-season saves leader Jason Grilli.  Fortunately for them, the leaky pen didn’t come back to haunt them.

    It is interesting to examine how this team was built.  Usually, championship squads are able to win largely because of some great draft picks they made prior to the season.  But that simply wasn’t the case for this Kings team.  In fact, they had a rather poor draft in March.  They made a historically bad trade in dealing their first round pick to the Mavericks for Ike Davis, who was a horrific bust.  The Mavericks used that pick to select Manny Machado.  If the Mavericks had won the league over the Kings, that trade would have gone down in infamy for the Kings.  Although they did acquire some nice role players in the draft, almost all of their key contributors were the 16 players who they retained from a year ago.  This speaks to the depth the team has built in recent years.  In fact, they used two of their draft picks to reacquire players who didn’t quite make that 16 player cut in the winter (Jonathan LuCroy and Michael Morse).  The solid core of players the Kings have assembled finally paid off with a title.

    In the upcoming weeks, I’ll review the 2013 season for the other nine teams.  If this government shutdown lasts a while, I may finish them all this week!  I’m looking forward to the MLB playoffs, featuring a whole bunch of small-market, low payroll teams.  It should be fun to watch.  Thanks to everyone for another very fun year.  21 seasons in the book!

  • Live Blog: Game 163

    Mavericks shortstop Elvis Andrus

    Tonight, the Rays and Rangers will play a tiebreaker to determine the second AL Wild Card participant.  By league rules, this game will count towards DTBL stats since it is an official MLB regular season game.  That means we have one more day of drama remaining in the 2013 championship season.  The Kings enter the night with a two point lead over the Mavericks.  This isn’t quite like last year with five teams still in the mix with a full slate of games on the final day, but it still should be very interesting.  I will write occasional updates throughout the game, updating you on category point changes that may or may not occur, which could ultimately swing the title.

    Although the Kings are in pretty good shape, this thing is far from over.  Before we get this game started, here are some categories that are still in play for the Kings to lose points or the Mavericks to gain points.  By my calculations, there are four categories to watch:  runs, stolen bases, ERA and wins.

    Runs is the category I’ve been focused on all week since the Mavericks have had an opportunity to catch the Kings for an immediate two point swing.  However, that is not looking very likely at the moment.  The Mavs trail by four runs and have only Elvis Andrus playing tonight.  It would be quite a feat for him to erase this deficit, especially since the Kings have their own player going tonight too in Ben Zobrist.  So I’ll label this one as a remote possibility, but obviously would be a game changer if it happened.  Stolen bases is very much in play tonight for both teams.  The Kings are currently tied with the Moonshiners, so 1/2 point could easily be lost here, especially since the Moonshiners have a bunch of players in this game:  Alex Rios, Ian Kinsler, Desmond Jennings and Matt  Joyce.  Jennings is nursing a hamstring issue though, so he may not do much running tonight.  Rios and Kinsler are certainly possibilities though.  The Mavericks could also pick up half a point in SBs if Andrus steals two bases tonight.  That’s not totally unrealistic.  ERA is probably the most likely category for the Kings to lose a  point.  They just passed the Naturals yesterday to increase their overall lead by a point, but the Naturals could get that point back with David Price on the mound tonight, and possibly Jake McGee as well.  By my calculations, Price and McGee need to allow two runs or fewer for the Kings to lose a point.  If they give up zero or one, the Naturals will almost certainly pass the Kings.  Two runs will require the Naturals pitchers to account for about eight innings of work.  Three or more runs means the Kings point should be safe.  Finally, there is only one win up for grabs tonight, but it could be big if it goes to a pitcher out of the bullpen.  The Kings are currently tied with the Moonshiners, so if Moonshiners relievers Joe Nathan or Fernando Rodney (or Jeremy Hellickson since all hands figure to be on deck for this one) vulture another win, then the Kings would drop a half point.  The Mavericks could also gain a half point in wins if they get a win out of this game.  That’s not likely though since Alex Cobb and Matt Garza are two starters who aren’t likely to be used in relief tonight.

    In my opinion, the Mavericks best chance at the title is for David Price to shut down the Rangers, costing the Kings a point in ERA, while Andrus grabs a pair of steals and one of the Moonshiners steals a base as well.  The chances of all of these things happening?  Probably not good.  But after what we saw a year ago, and what I experienced just yesterday in another league I’m in (along with Marc and Nick), almost anything can happen.  Check back throughout the night for updates.  Enjoy the game!

    8:30 pm EDT

    Through one inning, the Kings continue to sit in good shape.  Elvis Andrus walked, but was picked off, costing the Mavericks a shot at a much needed SB and R.  I think we can rule out any change in the runs category tonight.  So that leaves SB, ERA and W.  Kings lead is 2 points.  Rays lead the Rangers 1-0 through 1.

    9:12 pm

    It appears David Price is just going to go ahead and pick off every base runner that the Mavericks need to steal.  This time it is the Moonshiners’ Ian Kinsler.  Evan Longoria’s two run home run is irrelevant for the championship race, but did shift 1/2 point (RBI) from the Naturals to the Demigods.  Kings still up two points through three innings.

    9:42 pm

    Price has now allowed just one earned run in five innings, which is enough to edge the Naturals ahead of the Kings in ERA.  The Kings lead is down to just one point.  But the other categories aren’t looking great for the Mavericks at the moment.

    10:10 pm

    Now things are getting interesting!  Andrus singled, stole second and scored a run, opening up some possibilities for the Mavericks.  They are now just one steal shy of gaining 1/2 point.  However, the bad news for the Mavericks:  the earned run allowed by Price has moved the Kings back ahead of the Naturals in ERA.  The Kings lead is back to two points.

    10:39 pm

    Two innings to go and the Kings still lead by 2 points.  The Mavericks need Price and/or McGee to pitch at least 2/3 of an inning without giving up a run to cost the Kings an ERA point.  But where that second point will come from is not obvious.  On a non-DTBL note, instant replay can’t get here quickly enough.  The umpires botched a trapped ball which cost the Rays at least 1 run.  4-2 Rays after 7.

    10:59 pm

    Price gets through the eighth without allowing a run, so the Naturals are back ahead of the Kings in ERA again.  The Kings lead is down 1.  But the great play Price made to rob Andrus of a hit removed another steal possibility.  It is starting to look like the Kings will win the title by one point, but we’re not quite done yet.

    11:18 pm

    For the third time in the last four years, the DTBL Championship has been won by a point or less.  The Mavericks were unable to close the gap in any other category, so the Kings just lost the one point in ERA.  Unless I have seriously overlooked something, the Kings are the 2013 DTBL Champions, besting the Mavericks by a single point.  The official final standings will be updated at 8:20 a.m. EDT tomorrow.  Thanks for following.  Much more to come later this week.

  • The Stretch Run

    Choppers outfielder Jayson Werth

    I’m not sure we will ever see a final week of a baseball season quite like last year’s when five teams had a great chance to win the DTBL title right up to the last few pitches of the season.  So compared to that, this year’s pennant race may seem a little boring.  But for the four teams who have found themselves near the top of the standings most of the year, there is plenty of drama left in this season.

    Let’s start with the team that came out of last year’s wild finish with the title.  The Naturals haven’t quite been able to replicate last year’s success.  They currently sit in fourth place, 11 points behind the leader.  I’ll be honest, it doesn’t appear that they will be able to successfully defend their title.  They just have too much ground to make up and too many teams to catch.  The only case you could make for them to win this thing would be to put up an obscene stat line in the last week combined with a collapse from the three teams above.  Part of the Naturals problem has been that the player they depend on the most, Miguel Cabrera, has been severely limited by injuries over the last month or so.  Without his typical mashing, the Naturals offense just hasn’t been that strong.  Also, the September injury to Allen Craig couldn’t have come at a worse time with nobody capable of replacing him.  Their pitching has actually been very good of late, recently passing the Kings in both ERA and WHIP.  However, I just don’t see enough categories where gaining additional points is possible to give them a realistic shot at winning this thing.

    The case for the Choppers winning the league is much stronger.  The surprise team of the year, the Choppers have been on fire of late.  Their surprising pitching staff is now second in the league in pitching points, leading the way in saves and an impressive second place in ERA.  Chris Sale has been a beast all year, despite the unfortunately low win total.  C.J. Wilson is quietly having an outstanding year as well.  The Choppers offense has been slugging their way up the standings too.  It appears they will finish the season on top of the home run and RBI categories.  If there were such a thing as second half MVP, Jayson Werth would be a strong candidate for it.  Their key injury is to Jose Baustista, but his loss hasn’t really hurt their offense at all.  The Choppers opportunities to pick up points are limited, but average and runs are the two to watch, especially since the teams they are chasing in those categories are the two ahead of them in the overall standings.  They definitely need the Kings and Mavericks to drop a couple points this week, but that is very possible.  Assuming they hang onto a top 3 spot, this will be their best finish since 2001.  But they still have higher aspirations than just that.

    The Kings have been the title favorites for a while now.  They have topped the standings most of the season.  On occasion during the middle of the summer, it looked like they might run away with the title as they frequently held a double digit point lead.  But now they are hanging on for dear life.  They actually gave up the lead for a few days near the end of August.  But a couple strong weeks since have boosted them back to the lead.  The moment when things started turning south for the Kings is easy to identify:  when their best player, Carlos Gonzalez, suffered his finger injury in early July.  The Kings have had to move on without him for virtually the entire second half of the season.  But fortunately for them, they have found a few guys to pick up the slack on offense down the stretch, led by Ryan Zimmerman.  The recent concern has been with the previously solid pitching staff.  In the last week, they coughed up several points in ERA and WHIP.  Barring a terrible last week, they should be safe from losing more points in most pitching categories though.  Their vulnerability comes in two key categories:  runs scored (currently 1st) and stolen bases (4th).  If they can hold off the Choppers and/or Mavericks in those categories, they should be able to claim their fifth DTBL championship.  That is hardly a sure thing at this point though.

    I saved the Mavericks for last because I have a little more to say about them.  There were two big stories involving the Mavericks in August which deserved their own articles, but I had a few hectic weeks around that time and wasn’t able to make the time to write about them.  First, the Mavericks and Jackalope pulled off a major deadline trade.  The Mavs sent shortstop Jurickson Profar, first baseman Eric Hosmer and their third round pick in 2014 to the Jackalope for shortstop Elvis Andrus, second baseman Daniel Murphy, relief pitcher Steve Cishek and a fifth round draft pick.  The most fascinating thing about this trade is that the two key players in the deal, Andrus and Profar, have had their careers so tightly tied to one another the last couple years.  Profar was widely considered the top prospect in baseball entering this season.  The problem is, he is a shortstop for the Rangers, who happen to already have a pretty good shortstop by the name of Andrus.  Profar has spent the entire season on the MLB roster, but has been a part time player, seriously hampering his fantasy value.  But the Jackalope weren’t too worried about that considering this season was already a lost cause for them anyway.  Expect the Rangers to fix this log jam in the winter, especially if they wind up missing the playoffs which now appears quite possible.  Andrus and Profar should both be everyday players by next spring.  The Jackalope also received an intriguing player in Hosmer, who is finally starting to show some of that potential that hasn’t been seen since his rookie year.  This trade makes all the sense in the world for the Jackalope, acquiring two keepers for one as they begin their rebuild.  Likewise, the Mavericks made a major upgrade at their weakest spot:  middle infield.  Cishek has given them a boost in the bullpen, which is now one of the league’s best to go along with their unbeatable rotation.  I’m already declaring this trade a win/win for both sides.

    The other piece of Mavericks news in late August was not nearly as positive.  Phenom pitcher Matt Harvey was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his elbow.  Usually, this leads to Tommy John surgery, but as of now it appears Harvey will try to rest and rehab without surgery.  This will be a huge story next spring, because if he does succumb to surgery, that would obviously be a huge blow to the Mavericks for 2014.  But as for this season, the injury has not had a major impact because the Mavericks had/have such an enormous lead in the three categories where Harvey provided the most value:  ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  If the Mavericks don’t win the title, it won’t be because Harvey got hurt.  But this story clearly put a bit of a damper on their championship hunt.

    The Mavericks are definitely the team with the best chance of catching the Kings in the final week.  I can’t really put a probability figure on it, but I think they have a great chance.  The Kings have been very vulnerable for a couple months now and have anything but a safe lead in a couple key categories, as described above.  The Mavericks need a big week from their offense though.  Like all of the other title contenders, the Mavericks are going down the stretch without one of their best offensive players.  Team home run leader Edwin Encarnacion had season ending wrist surgery just last week.  But the Mavericks have likely maxed out in the power categories anyway.  Batting average, runs scored and stolen bases are the key.  And they just happen to have the best player in baseball when it comes to contributing to all three of those categories:  Mike Trout.  Just like last season, Trout is finishing this campaign on fire.  He will attempt to carry most of the load for the Mavs in the final week.  His heroic effort down the stretch last season came up just short.  Perhaps this year will be different.

    So we have four teams vying for the title.  It should be a fun week.  Unfortunately, if the title comes down to the final day like it did last season, I won’t be able to do another live blog/tweet event because I will be spending most of Sunday behind the wheel driving back from South Bend.  So you will be on your own to figure out what’s going on.  The live stats should make that much easier to do this year though, if you are so inclined.  Good luck to the championship contenders!

  • Biogenesis Fallout

    Free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez

    It has been about two weeks since all of the Biogenesis related suspensions were handed out by Major League Baseball, so I am very late to the party.  For the most part, I am tired of the story and have nothing particularly insightful to add.  But there are pretty significant baseball implications here, so I feel the need to write a little bit about it.  Fortunately, I will be able to quickly bury this post with a much more interesting article (to me) coming in the next day or two.  In case you didn’t notice, there was a pretty big trade made before the deadline last week.  But first, here are some of my Biogenesis thoughts along with the impact the suspensions will have on the DTBL.

    I have to admit that I was very skeptical of the entire Biogenesis story when it was made public earlier this year.  It seemed far too coincidental that many of the players being implicated in the story just happened to be most of the players who had tested positive for PEDs and/or served drug related suspensions last year.  As it turns out, there was a good reason for this.  All of these players were receiving their PEDs from the same source:  Tony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic.  Many have stated that these suspensions and subsequent admissions of guilt are a black eye on the sport of baseball.  I don’t see it that way.  In fact, I think it is somewhat encouraging that most of the players suspended in the last year and a half had ties to this now defunct clinic.  This is not to say I believe PEDs have been completely eradicated from the league now that Biogenesis is no more.  But I believe these suspensions are a positive step towards cleaning up the game.  Cheaters are getting caught and punished.  That is more than could be said as recently as five years ago.  Also, while there is still plenty of room for improvement in the drug testing and punishment program, MLB is so far ahead of the other three major professional sports leagues in this regard, it isn’t even worth comparing.  That MLB seems to take far more heat than the NFL for having a PED problem is completely ridiculous.

    To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of the Biogenesis scandal has been the way it has been covered by the media.  Not only the overwhelming number of articles on the topic, but the extent to which specific guilty players have been skewered as cheaters and liars.  They are indeed both of those things, but this isn’t new information.  Almost everyone besides die-hard Brewers fans and Aaron Rodgers knew Ryan Braun was guilty of taking PEDs when he avoided a suspension on a pure technicality following a failed drug test.  The fact that he is now admitting his guilt after accepting a 65 game suspension is not particularly interesting news, in my opinion.  He certainly owes a major apology to the sample handler whose character he attacked, among allegedly much worse things, as the Braun drama continues.  And the Brewers fans who have stuck by Braun throughout his career have every right to be angry.  But other than that, I don’t see Braun as much more of a villain than any of these other suspended players, past or present.  Almost all of these guys attempted to do whatever they could to avoid punishment, just as Braun did.  Heck, somewhat hilariously, Melky Cabrera tried to create an entire web site to prove his innocence.  But he seems to have been forgiven as he is now yesterday’s news.  Braun and Alex Rodriguez just happen to be the biggest names in this story, and are therefore receiving the most attention.

    And then there is ARod and his pending 211 game suspension.  I am really curious to see what kind of dirt MLB has on him, because on the face of it, the largest drug related suspension in league history seems a bit harsh for a player who has not tested positive under the current drug testing regime.  I have no opinion on how much of a suspension he deserves without knowing exactly what he did, but again I state that almost all of these players have taken steps to try to duck the long arm of the law.  Just how serious ARod’s offenses were in comparison will be interesting to see.  I would hope the fact that pretty much everybody wants him to just go away, including his own employer, had no bearing on the decision to give him this unprecedented year and a half ban.  Just because everyone hates him isn’t enough of a reason to cast him out to sea.  But the willingness of the rest of these players to accept their punishments leads me to believe that MLB’s evidence is pretty solid.  So the ARod saga continues.

    Now for the DTBL impact of Biogenesis.  Despite some huge names going down in this scandal, it doesn’t appear to be particularly likely to swing the DTBL title race in one direction or another.  Almost all of the suspended players happen to be on non-contending teams.  Losing Braun is just another major blow in a nightmare season for the Jackalope.  They will finish this season without the two main faces of their franchise (Braun and Albert Pujols, who was just ruled out for the season due to his foot injury).  The Moonshiners will be without the services of Jhonny Peralta, but they too are in the midst of a disappointing season.  Nelson Cruz will be out of the Gators lineup for 50 games.  The Gators currently sit in last place, but seem to be building a more competitive team for the future.  Losing Cruz won’t really change much.  Ditto for Everth Cabrera and the Demigods.  The one suspended player on a contending team is Jesus Montero of the Naturals.  However, he had been sent to AAA a couple months ago and didn’t figure to play much of a role down the stretch for the Naturals anyway.  Finally, Alex Rodriguez has been a free agent all season after the Kings finally cut him last winter.  Interestingly enough, there is a chance a DTBL team might take a flyer on him before the year is over since he is finally healthy and doesn’t figure to have his appeal ruled upon until very late in the season, if not after it.  Despite receiving the biggest punishment of any Biogenesis player, he may be the only one on a DTBL active roster in September.  Well, maybe Melky Cabrera (Gators) too since he did not receive any additional punishment having served his suspension last year.  Same for Yasmani Grandal (Naturals) , but he’s out for the year with a knee injury anyway.

    To close things out, in regards to Biogensis, I am going to steal a line from The Band Perry:  All I want to be is done!

  • Mavericks’ Mound Masters

    Mavericks pitcher Matt Harvey

    There is a commonly held belief in baseball that it is better to build a team around offense and every day players due to the unpredictable nature of pitching.  While I tend to agree with this, I think it is far less relevant in fantasy baseball and certainly hasn’t been the case in this league.  In the past ten years, this league has gone through three distinct eras of a single team dominating the league in pitching for an extended period of time.  We have not seen this sort of consistency on the batting side of things, with no team leading the league in batting points for more than two consecutive years in league history.

    Starting in 2003, the Mavericks led the league in pitching points three out of four years, winning two DTBL titles in that stretch.  Then came the Darkhorses reign from 2007-2009 where they won the championship and led the way in pitching all three seasons.  Finally, the Jackalope topped the league in pitching the past three seasons, including one league title.  But it appears we are about to start a new era of mound domination.  The Mavericks are back on top of the pitching standings, and when you look at their rotation, it is hard to see them giving up that spot anytime soon.

    The Mavericks team pitching stats are nearly unbelievable.  They are on pace to obliterate the league record for team ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  Even with nearly two months to go, it is virtually inconceivable that they could lose their spot at the top of those three categories, and only slightly conceivable that they WON’T wind up as the new team record holder in each category.  Here’s a look at each of the three.  Their 2.63 ERA leads the league by more than 3/4 of a run per 9 IP.  The all-time record is 2.83 by the 2011 Jackalope.  So they are 0.20 below the best single season mark in league history.  Next, their 1.03 team WHIP is completely absurd.  You wouldn’t have to go back very far to find seasons where no single qualifying pitcher had a WHIP that low, forget an entire staff (2008 to be exact).  The record in that category also belongs to the ’11 Jackalope at 1.12.  Finally, they entered today with 962 strike outs, 93 clear of second place.  That puts them on pace for approximately 1,390 strike outs at year’s end.  The record in that category is 1,333 by the Mavericks’ own ’07 squad.  If they keep up the pace in these three categories, there will be very little room for debate when it comes to the greatest pitching staff in league history.

    But here’s the strange part.  Despite all of those eye-popping numbers, the Mavericks only find themselves in third in wins.  If there was ever a staff that proves how useless the wins category is for evaluating the quality of pitchers, this is the one.  The main reason for the low win total is because most of the Mavericks’ pitchers play for weak offensive MLB teams and have been the victims of criminally poor run support.  I’ll get to more of that in a bit.  They are also only fifth in the saves category, but that figures to change soon since they are one of the few teams with four current closers in the bullpen.

    According to ESPN’s fantasy baseball player rater, two of the top three pitchers in baseball this year are Mavericks:  Clayton Kershaw (#1) and Matt Harvey (#3).  If it weren’t for poor run support (and bullpen, in Harvey’s case), they would probably be the top two and would also likely be the first two pitchers selected if we were to re-draft all of our teams today.  They also happen to be #1 and #2 in the league in both ERA and WHIP, with Kershaw leading the way in both.  Kershaw’s 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP probably won’t be enough to break the all-time records held by Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, but those numbers would both be the lowest in the league since Pedro’s ridiculous 2000 season.  Harvey’s 2.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at either.  And he leads Kershaw in strike outs (172 to 161), but trails Yu Darvish for the league lead.  Quite simply, these are your top two Cy Young candidates, even ahead of Max Scherzer and his 16 wins.

    Then there is Stephen Strasburg.  In many ways, this has felt like a disappointing season for last year’s #2 overall pick.  But he has a 3.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and more than a strike out per inning.  Don’t let the win total fool you.  Strasburg is one of the best pitchers in baseball too.  Perhaps flying under the radar due to the aforementioned trio of stud pitchers is Mat Latos.  Latos is tied with Kershaw for the team lead in wins with 10 and has more strikeouts than Strasburg.  Then there is Matt Garza who has posted an ERA under 2.00 in his partial time on the Mavericks major league roster.  And don’t forget injured Alex Cobb who was looking like another one of the best up-and-coming pitchers before getting struck in the head by a line drive in June.  If he’s able to fully recover from that, the Mavericks will have an embarrassment of riches and some tough decisions to make this winter.  No matter what they decide, this staff looks unbeatable for the near future.  The rest of the owners may not want to read the following list of the ages of the Mavericks starting pitchers:  Kershaw 25, Harvey 24, Strasburg 25, Latos 25, Garza 29, Cobb 25.

    Going back to the wins category, where the Mavericks currently sit in third place, the reason is clear:  poor run support.  Strasburg’s meager five wins are far more of a reflection on his Nationals teammates than himself.  He has received just 2.76 runs of support per start, trailing only Chris Sale among all starting pitchers for worst run support.  Kershaw has managed to win 10 games despite being eighth on that same list.  With even average support, he would probably have 15 wins by now.  Harvey’s eight wins are also due to poor support, both offensively and by his bullpen.  Not that any of these guys are likely to suddenly receive great support, you would think their luck might turn around a bit before the year is over.

    One minor issue for the Mavericks in their championship hunt could be one that plagued them a year ago as well:  a starting pitcher shutdown.  In case you have forgotten, the Mavericks lost Strasburg for most of the final month last season as the Nationals controversially decided to shut down their ace during the pennant race after reaching a previously established innings limit.  Strasburg is good to go this October, except it appears his team is unlikely to qualify for the playoffs.  But it remains to be seen if the Mets will put an innings limit on Matt Harvey this year.  They won’t have much to play for in September, so they could opt to shelve him after he gets over 200 or so innings.  But unlike Strasburg, this isn’t likely to cost him an entire month.  Also, the Mavericks figure to have a safe lead in all of the key categories in which Harvey can help them anyway.  Not to mention, they should have Cobb or Garza waiting in the wings to fill in.  So while the Strasburg shutdown certainly didn’t help the Mavericks championship chances last year, there is little worry of this situation repeating itself this year.  If the Mavericks fail to win the title, it won’t be because of their pitching.

    In other news, it sounds like stuff is about to hit the fan in the Biogenesis case, possibly tomorrow.  I will begrudgingly write about this soon, even though I am tired of the story and don’t really want to hear about it anymore.  I will at least write about the potential impact on our league though.

    Also, a reminder that the trade deadline is coming up soon.  Trades must be submitted and accepted by the end of August 15.  After that, no trades can be made until after roster cuts early next year.  If you are completing a trade which includes 2014 draft picks, both parties must confirm the deal with me via email.  I plan on rectifying the inability to trade future draft picks via the web site before next season.

  • National Pitchers Shine in Victory

    All-Star Game MVP Edwin Encarnacion

    A couple months ago, I wrote an article with the headline “A Strikeout Epidemic”.  I could have used it again to headline this recap of the 20th DTBL All-Star Game.  On Wednesday night at Moonshiner Ballpark, home of Mike’s Moonshiners, 29 at bats resulted in a strikeout.  Amongst all of the whiffs, the National Division was able to string together enough hits to pull out a 5-1 victory over the American Division.  The National pitchers were dominant from start to finish, striking out 15 hitters, walking none, and surrendering just four hits.

    The National All-Stars set the tone early against American starting pitcher Cliff Lee.  Mike Trout started the game by walking on four pitches and scored two batters later on a double by Evan Longoria.  A Chris Davis single moved Longoria to third with one out.  But the National All-Stars failed to break the game open, and started the K parade when the next two batters were retired on strikes.  Again in the second, the National Division looked poised to run away with things.  Buster Posey started the inning with a single, advanced to third on a double by Adam Jones and scored on an infield single by Ian Desmond.  But once again, the threat didn’t amount to much as two of the next three hitters struck out.  The 2-0 lead would prove to be all they would need though.

    Max Scherzer started the big night for National pitchers with two scoreless innings, striking out three.  Matt Harvey followed with a pair of strikeouts in his inning.  Then Adam Wainwright turned it up a notch, striking out all three batters he faced in the fourth.  The biggest hit of the night came in the top of the fifth.  Facing Chris Sale with one man on and two outs, Edwin Encarnacion worked Sale through a nine pitch battle, ending with a two run home run to deep left.  This gave the National squad a commanding 4-0 lead at the mid-point of the game.

    The American Division finally got on the board in the bottom of the 8th.  Andrew McCutchen hit a solo home run on a 0-2, 2 out pitch from Yu Darvish.  It was McCutchen’s second hit of the night, giving him half of the American’s total hits.  Mariano Rivera made his final DTBL All-Star Game appearance in the top of the 9th, but it was not nearly the fairy tale ending that the real Rivera provided the night before.  He surrendered the final run of the game, a sacrifice fly by David Ortiz scoring Longoria.  Sergio Romo took the mound with a four run lead in the bottom of the 9th and, fittingly, struck out the side to end the game.

    Scherzer was the winning pitcher and Lee took the loss.  There was a tough call for the MVP award.  Longoria reached base four times on two hits with a RBI.  Davis had three hits.  Sherzer had the two impressive innings on the mound.  But in the end, we decided to go with OOTP’s choice of Mavericks first baseman Edwin Encarnacion.  His two run homer was definitely the biggest hit of the game.

    You never know how these games will play out.  Although the 29 strike outs were pretty mind-boggling, the domination of the National pitching staff was not.  They had as strong of a collection of starting pitcher as you will ever see.  In fact, the National Division could have fielded a very strong 5-man rotation of guys who didn’t even make this team.  Both teams had impressive lineups, but good pitching beat good hitting on this night.

    We had some technical difficulties, so the game wasn’t played quite the way I had planned.  Nick had connectivity issues, making the webcast a no-go.  So we went “old school” and started a Facebook chat with me typing in the play-by-play, which is pretty much how we did things until the LiveStream idea popped up a couple years ago.  So I apologize to anyone who tried to tune into the webcast last night.  We’ll try something similar next year, although I’m thinking about switching to a Google+ Hangout.  But we’ll worry about that a year from now.

    I hope you had a restful All-Star break.  The baseball action resumes tomorrow!

    Here is the box score from last night’s game.

  • 2013 DTBL All-Stars

    Jackalope All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

    Next week, the 20th DTBL All-Star Game will be played.  Mike’s Moonshiners will be the host squad.  The game is tentatively scheduled for late next Wednesday night.  The American Divsion will be managed by Nick, on the strength of his championship last season.  On the National side, the Kings and Mavericks tied for second place, therefore they also tied for the right to manage in the All-Star Game.  The Kings “won” the tiebreaker (head-to-head category comparison), which led to the Mavericks picking in front of the Kings in this year’s draft.  But it also means that I will be managing the National All-Stars.  I decided to include Marc in the roster decision-making process though.  Nick, Marc and I broke all voting ties for starter and reserve spots, and chose the 23rd player for each roster.  Here are the 2013 DTBL All-Stars:

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Max Scherzer, Kings
    • Catcher – Buster Posey, Demigods
    • First Base – Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks
    • Second Base – Robinson Cano, Kings
    • Third Base – Evan Longoria, Demigods
    • Shortstop – Ian Desmond, Kings
    • Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings
    • Outfield – Adam Jones, Mavericks
    • Outfield – Mike Trout,  Mavericks

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Wilin Rosario, Kings
    • First Base – David Ortiz, Demigods
    • Second Base – Jason Kipnis, Cougars
    • Outfield – Chris Davis, Cougars
    • Outfield – Carlos Beltran, Kings
    • Outfield – Jay Bruce, Kings
    • Pitcher – Matt Harvey, Mavericks
    • Pitcher – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
    • Pitcher – Adam Wainwright, Cougars
    • Pitcher – Yu Darvish, Demigods
    • Relief Pitcher – Jason Grilli, Kings
    • Relief Pitcher – Grant Balfour, Cougars
    • Relief Pitcher – Sergio Romo, Darkhorses
    • Relief Pitcher – Ernesto Frieri, Darkhorses

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Cliff Lee, Jackalope
    • Catcher – Yadier Molina, Choppers
    • First Base – Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope
    • Second Base – Howie Kendrick, Gators
    • Third Base – Miguel Cabrera, Naturals
    • Shortstop – Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals
    • Outfield – Jose Bautista, Choppers
    • Outfield – Mark Trumbo, Choppers
    • Outfield – Nelson Cruz, Gators

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – J.P. Arencibia, Moonshiners
    • First Base – Joey Votto, Naturals
    • Third Base – David Wright, Moonshiners
    • Shortstop – Jean Segura, Gators
    • Outfield – Michael Cuddyer, Gators
    • Outfield – Andrew McCutchen, Naturals
    • Pitcher – Felix Hernandez, Jackalope
    • Pitcher – Hisashi Iwakuma, Gators
    • Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers
    • Pitcher – Jordan Zimmermann, Naturals
    • Relief Pitcher – Joe Nathan, Moonshiners
    • Relief Pitcher – Mariano Rivera, Choppers
    • Relief Pitcher – Craig Kimbrel, Choppers
    • Relief Pitcher – Aroldis Chapman, Jackalope

    All-Stars per team:

    • 8 – Kings
    • 6 – Choppers
    • 5 – Gators, Mavericks, Naturals
    • 4 – Cougars, Demigods, Jackalope
    • 3 – Moonshiners
    • 2 – Darkhorses

    For those of you wondering how in the world Chris Davis isn’t a starter, have no fear, he will be starting the game.  Four National outfielders were unanimous choices (including Davis), so we decided to make Davis the designated hitter.  Jay Bruce and Joey Votto were the 23rd players selected for each roster.  On paper, the National Division roster looks much stronger.  But history has shown that to mean very little when it comes to the actual game.  As usual, we’ll be using OOTP to simulate the game and will probably be doing another live webcast, so stay tuned for that.  Here are the full voting results.

  • Second To None

    Cougars outfielder Chris Davis

    This article is brought to you by the number two. For the second straight year, second round draft picks are making a major impact on the balance of power in the league. Two teams, in particular, have struck it rich in the second round. A year ago, the Mavericks pulled off one of the all time heists when they grabbed Mike Trout in the second round, and nearly won the league because of it. Because of the Trout thing, the Cougars second round pick of Gio Gonzalez was overlooked a bit. But all he did was lead the league in wins and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. This year, the Mavericks and Cougars did it again, drafting MVP and Cy Young candidates in the second round. The Cougars picked outfielder Chris Davis with the 13th pick in the draft and the Mavericks acquired starting pitcher Matt Harvey with the 18th pick.

    Everyone thought last year was the breakout year for Chris Davis, when he finally reached his potential as a big time power hitter. But his 2012 wasn’t anything compared to what he is doing this year. He currently leads the league with 30 home runs, an incredible total before the end of June in the post-steroids era. He is six clear of the next highest home run total. His 79 RBI trails only Miguel Cabrera and his .333 batting average ranks fourth. Another incredible season by Cabrera is the only thing keeping Davis from being the clear MVP favorite.

    Davis was a highly touted prospect and was a first round draft pick by the Mavericks in 2009. But he was a huge disappointment for them and was cut at the end of his DTBL rookie season. The Choppers took a chance on him in the fourth round the following year, but released him two months into the season. He didn’t make it back onto a DTBL roster until the Naturals signed him as a free agent last season. He proceeded to have a breakout season, hitting 28 home runs for the Naturals, nearly tripling his previous DTBL career total.

    There is an obvious similarity between the Gonzalez and Davis selections by the Cougars. Neither were DTBL rookies and their previous teams would probably like a re-do on their decisions not to keep them. In the case of Davis, the Naturals were in a tough spot because of their surplus of quality hitters. Davis was classified as a first baseman last year (and almost certainly will be again next year), but moved to the outfield this year. Usually, such a position switch would increase a player’s value. But the Naturals had another guy making the opposite switch (Allen Craig), so the Davis position move wasn’t a major issue. The Naturals still have a loaded offense though, so the loss of Davis hasn’t been as crippling as you might have otherwise expected.

    Matt Harvey has already become a “must watch” pitcher, in just his second season in the big leagues. He has been completely dominant in virtually every start this season. He leads the league in ERA (2.00) and WHIP (0.85) and trails only fellow DTBL rookie Yu Darvish in strike outs (132). If he is able to keep that WHIP number where it is, it would be the third best single season value in league history and the best since 2000. It’s only a weak Mets offense and bullpen that is keeping his win total down at just seven. Just like Trout did a year ago, it is Harvey who is most responsible for the Mavericks being right in the thick of the championship race, currently in second place and just 5 1/2 points out of first.

    After several years of mediocre results from their surplus of early draft picks, the Mavericks have really struck gold the last two years. Last year it was Trout and Stephen Strasburg. This year it is Harvey and Manny Machado. While Trout was a bit of a surprise pick last year, one that every other DTBL team regrets allowing to happen, Harvey was very much on the radar for several teams. I know for a fact that Harvey would not have made it out of the second round had the Mavericks passed on him. But he was still the sixth starting pitcher to go, so there are obviously a few teams regretting their decisions again this year.

    Davis and Harvey aren’t the only second round picks who are having great years. Carlos Gomez is having a huge year for the Demigods. Jeff Samardzija is pitching very well for the Jackalope, and is helping make up for what is looking like one of the all time first round busts for the Jackalope in Danny Espinosa. Glen Perkins has been one of the best closers in baseball, rewarding the Naturals for their second round pick.

  • A Terrific Trio of Tigers

    Kings pitcher Max Scherzer

    This season marks the 10th anniversary of Kevin’s Kings most recent DTBL Championship.  They are attempting to cap off the celebration this year by becoming the first franchise to win a fifth league title.  They are the current front-runners, holding a nine point lead over the Mavericks.  The primary reason for their lead is a dominant pitching staff led by three Detroit Tigers teammates:  Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez.

    It can be a dangerous proposition to put all of your proverbial eggs in a single MLB team’s basket, but that is largely what the Kings are doing.  With three fifths of their rotation consisting of Tigers pitchers, the Kings could have been doomed if this Tigers squad seriously underachieved.  While Detroit is not running away with anything, their hitting and pitching have largely lived up to expectations, rewarding the Kings along the way.  The Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez trio has been especially dominant.

    These three pitchers are having great seasons, with each of them contributing very similar numbers.  All three are on the league leaderboard in strike outs, averaging more than a strike out per inning.  They all have at least six wins with ERAs of 3.70 or better and very solid WHIPs.  Together, they have helped boost the Kings to the top of the league in wins and near the top in the other pitching categories as well.  Each took a different path to get to this point of their career with the Kings, however.

    Verlander has been the ace of the Kings staff, and one of the top pitchers in the league, ever since the Kings selected him in the third round of the 2009 draft.  This year, he has been solid, but not spectacular.  In fact, he probably has the worst numbers of this Tigers trio.  Scherzer and Sanchez both have better ERAs and WHIPs and even have more strike outs than Verlander to this point.  But still, Verlander’s 87 strike outs and seven wins are nothing to sneeze at.  He’s the safest bet to keep up the current pace for a full season since he’s done it four straight years.  He has had a minimum of 17 wins and 219 strike outs in every season with the Kings.  He is second, behind Randy Johnson, in franchise history in ERA, WHIP and strike outs.

    Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.  He won his eighth game of the year this afternoon, tying him for most in the league.  His impressive 0.89 WHIP is second best, as is his strike out total which reached the 100 mark this afternoon.  He’s been fairly unlucky to have an ERA over 3 (3.24) when looking at the rest of his numbers.  But he’s on pace to set career bests in all four relevant categories.  Scherzer was acquired in a trade with the Jackalope back in 2010.  At the time, he was stuck on the bench for a Jackalope squad that had one of the strongest rotations in league history.  Now he’s playing a leading role for the first place Kings.  He has been a solid strike out contributor for quite some time, but this year is the first time he’s put it all together for a significant stretch.  But his hot streak really started in the second half of last season.  His turnaround from a rough start was a key factor in the Kings near miss of the ’12 championship.

    Sanchez is the big surprise of this group.  He’s been a solid, but not spectacular player for several years.  But his inconsistency has led him to be shuffled in and out of the lineup since the Kings signed him as a free agent in 2011.  The potential has always been there though, which is why the Kings have continued to retain his services despite being a part time player for them prior to this season.  He won just seven games for the Kings a year ago, but is already at six this year.  His 2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are way better than his career marks.  And 98 strike outs in 78 innings blows away anything he has done before.  So if there is one candidate most likely to come down to earth, it would be Sanchez.  He’s in a much better situation than in previous years though.  He pitches for a very good offensive squad in a great pitcher’s ballpark.  If he can continue to pitch as he has so far this season, he will be a pretty impressive third option for both the Tigers and Kings.

    The Kings will need these three guys to continue to lead their staff because they got some bad news yesterday regarding another member of their rotation.  Jake Peavy has a broken rib and will miss at least 4-6 weeks.  It was Peavy who was expected to be the Kings number three guy behind Verlander and Scherzer.  But Sanchez has grabbed that spot and will try to lessen the blow of the loss of Peavy.

    Gators and Naturals Make a Deal

    In other (belated) league news, the Naturals and Gators completed this year’s first regular season trade a few weeks ago.  The Naturals dealt outfielder Starling Marte and their 8th round pick in 2014 to the Gators for relief pitcher Greg Holland and a 6th round pick.  The Naturals were in desperate need of a closer following the spring training loss of Jason Motte and a subsequent injury to Chris Perez (who has some interesting legal issues hanging over him now too).  Holland has been perfect for the Naturals so far, earning three saves with a spotless ERA.  Meanwhile, Marte figures to be another important piece in the Gators rebuilding process.  He has hit a rough patch since joining the Gators and is currently in their minors, but this trade was more about the future.  The Gators have a vastly improved offense following a few years of historic ineptitude with the bats.  Eventually, Marte should fit in nicely with the other good, young players the Gators have acquired in the last 12 months.

    The big story in baseball this week is ESPN’s report that MLB is seeking to suspend 20+ players, including some of the game’s biggest stars, in the wake of the Biogenesis PED investigation.  However, I don’t think this is worth discussing in any great detail until actual suspensions are handed out.  Call me a skeptic, but unless there is hard evidence beyond Tony Bosch’s personal testimony, I think MLB will have a hard time dolling out lengthy bans.  Bosch is simply not a credible witness.  But we’ll wait and see what other evidence is provided.  Stay tuned.